Lula maintains a commanding lead in Piauí first-round voting intentions according to multiple late-September 2026 polls, reflecting the state's longstanding alignment with the PT and its president. The Northeast state delivered Lula his strongest 2022 performance nationwide at over 76% in the second round, and current surveys show him at 63-70% locally against single-digit or low-20s shares for rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. A large early-September campaign rally in Teresina drew tens of thousands and reinforced mobilization alongside the PT state government. Traders price this dominance into the market because Piauí's electorate has shown consistent preference for Lula-aligned candidates in recent cycles, with limited movement among smaller contenders. A major unforeseen development such as a health event or scandal could still alter trajectories before October 4, though recent data indicate stability.