Lula holds a commanding lead in Rio Grande do Norte first-round voting intentions according to multiple recent state polls, reflecting the Workers’ Party’s longstanding regional strength in the Northeast. Surveys from late September show the incumbent president ahead by 20–30 points over Flávio Bolsonaro, with minor candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado trailing far behind. This positioning aligns with historical patterns in the state, where Lula secured over 60 percent in the 2022 first round. Traders appear to price in these consistent margins and the short timeline before the October 4 vote, though late campaign developments or unusually low turnout could narrow the gap in a fragmented field.