Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes from geopolitical oil shocks, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent through the July FOMC meeting. With the April decision already resulting in a pause amid record dissent and no signs of rapid disinflation, the 93 percent market-implied odds for three consecutive holds reflect consensus that persistent inflation and resilient labor conditions outweigh any near-term easing bias. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 and July 28–29 meetings, where fresh CPI and employment data could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or if downside risks to growth materialize.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.0%
Other 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.3%
$49,002 KL.
$49,002 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.0%
Other 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.3%
$49,002 KL.
$49,002 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,596 KL.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 KL.
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 KL.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,622 KL.
1%
Other
$1,595 KL.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes from geopolitical oil shocks, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent through the July FOMC meeting. With the April decision already resulting in a pause amid record dissent and no signs of rapid disinflation, the 93 percent market-implied odds for three consecutive holds reflect consensus that persistent inflation and resilient labor conditions outweigh any near-term easing bias. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 and July 28–29 meetings, where fresh CPI and employment data could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or if downside risks to growth materialize.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$49,002Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes from geopolitical oil shocks, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent through the July FOMC meeting. With the April decision already resulting in a pause amid record dissent and no signs of rapid disinflation, the 93 percent market-implied odds for three consecutive holds reflect consensus that persistent inflation and resilient labor conditions outweigh any near-term easing bias. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 and July 28–29 meetings, where fresh CPI and employment data could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or if downside risks to growth materialize.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$49,002Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes from geopolitical oil shocks, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent through the July FOMC meeting. With the April decision already resulting in a pause amid record dissent and no signs of rapid disinflation, the 93 percent market-implied odds for three consecutive holds reflect consensus that persistent inflation and resilient labor conditions outweigh any near-term easing bias. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 and July 28–29 meetings, where fresh CPI and employment data could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or if downside risks to growth materialize.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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