Market-implied odds for the Federal Reserve to hold its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target range through the March, April, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings stand at 98%, reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. Recent data showing headline CPI rising to 3.3% year-over-year in March, driven by elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance, as signaled in the April 29 statement that maintained rates amid heightened uncertainty. With core PCE forecasts revised higher and only one cut still projected for later in 2026, participants view the current policy as appropriately restrictive. A shift could occur if incoming May or June inflation prints surprise sharply lower or labor market indicators weaken materially, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current trends.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtDừng–Dừng–Dừng 98.0%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm 1.6%
Khác <1%
$1,103,522 KL.
$1,103,522 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng
98%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm
2%
Khác
<1%
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng 98.0%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm 1.6%
Khác <1%
$1,103,522 KL.
$1,103,522 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng
$63,257 KL.
98%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm
$42,236 KL.
2%
Khác
$252,688 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for the Federal Reserve to hold its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target range through the March, April, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings stand at 98%, reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. Recent data showing headline CPI rising to 3.3% year-over-year in March, driven by elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance, as signaled in the April 29 statement that maintained rates amid heightened uncertainty. With core PCE forecasts revised higher and only one cut still projected for later in 2026, participants view the current policy as appropriately restrictive. A shift could occur if incoming May or June inflation prints surprise sharply lower or labor market indicators weaken materially, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current trends.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,103,522Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for the Federal Reserve to hold its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target range through the March, April, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings stand at 98%, reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. Recent data showing headline CPI rising to 3.3% year-over-year in March, driven by elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance, as signaled in the April 29 statement that maintained rates amid heightened uncertainty. With core PCE forecasts revised higher and only one cut still projected for later in 2026, participants view the current policy as appropriately restrictive. A shift could occur if incoming May or June inflation prints surprise sharply lower or labor market indicators weaken materially, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current trends.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$1,103,522Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds for the Federal Reserve to hold its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target range through the March, April, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings stand at 98%, reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. Recent data showing headline CPI rising to 3.3% year-over-year in March, driven by elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance, as signaled in the April 29 statement that maintained rates amid heightened uncertainty. With core PCE forecasts revised higher and only one cut still projected for later in 2026, participants view the current policy as appropriately restrictive. A shift could occur if incoming May or June inflation prints surprise sharply lower or labor market indicators weaken materially, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current trends.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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