Elevated inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and surging energy prices have pushed trader consensus toward fewer or no federal funds rate cuts in 2026, with the benchmark range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% energy index increase, while core inflation reached 2.6% and the labor market added 115,000 jobs in April with unemployment at 4.3% and wage growth near 3.6%. Major brokerages including BofA now forecast the first cut no earlier than July 2027, while Goldman Sachs delays easing until December 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that assigns roughly 71.5% odds to holding rates through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release, June 16-17 FOMC decision with updated projections, and potential shifts in monetary policy expectations following the May 2026 chair transition.