Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% implied probability against a Fed funds rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March dot plot's median projection of 2.5% by year-end—well below the current 3.5%-3.75% target—amid expectations of further easing to combat softening labor markets. April's FOMC held rates steady in an 8-4 vote, with one dissenter favoring a cut and others opposing easing language, as Chair Powell highlighted persistent but energy-driven inflation stuck above 3%. Recent April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year on a 3.8% energy spike tied to Middle East tensions, yet core measures at 2.8% and steady 4.3% unemployment support no-hike positioning. Key catalysts include June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
$1,093,309 KL.
$1,093,309 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
Có
$1,093,309 KL.
$1,093,309 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% implied probability against a Fed funds rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March dot plot's median projection of 2.5% by year-end—well below the current 3.5%-3.75% target—amid expectations of further easing to combat softening labor markets. April's FOMC held rates steady in an 8-4 vote, with one dissenter favoring a cut and others opposing easing language, as Chair Powell highlighted persistent but energy-driven inflation stuck above 3%. Recent April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year on a 3.8% energy spike tied to Middle East tensions, yet core measures at 2.8% and steady 4.3% unemployment support no-hike positioning. Key catalysts include June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,093,309Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% implied probability against a Fed funds rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March dot plot's median projection of 2.5% by year-end—well below the current 3.5%-3.75% target—amid expectations of further easing to combat softening labor markets. April's FOMC held rates steady in an 8-4 vote, with one dissenter favoring a cut and others opposing easing language, as Chair Powell highlighted persistent but energy-driven inflation stuck above 3%. Recent April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year on a 3.8% energy spike tied to Middle East tensions, yet core measures at 2.8% and steady 4.3% unemployment support no-hike positioning. Key catalysts include June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$1,093,309Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% implied probability against a Fed funds rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March dot plot's median projection of 2.5% by year-end—well below the current 3.5%-3.75% target—amid expectations of further easing to combat softening labor markets. April's FOMC held rates steady in an 8-4 vote, with one dissenter favoring a cut and others opposing easing language, as Chair Powell highlighted persistent but energy-driven inflation stuck above 3%. Recent April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year on a 3.8% energy spike tied to Middle East tensions, yet core measures at 2.8% and steady 4.3% unemployment support no-hike positioning. Key catalysts include June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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