Recent soft July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a weaker-than-expected jobs report with payrolls declining 23,000, have tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening at the 3.50%-3.75% funds rate target. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, elevated energy prices, and a divided FOMC—with three members dissenting in favor of a September hike—create a balanced market-implied probability near 50% for any rate increase during 2026. Futures markets currently embed gradual policy firming later in the year. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision, August CPI release, and labor market updates that could shift trader consensus on the rate path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
47% khả năng
$7,535,419 KL.
$7,535,419 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
Có
47% khả năng
$7,535,419 KL.
$7,535,419 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent soft July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a weaker-than-expected jobs report with payrolls declining 23,000, have tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening at the 3.50%-3.75% funds rate target. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, elevated energy prices, and a divided FOMC—with three members dissenting in favor of a September hike—create a balanced market-implied probability near 50% for any rate increase during 2026. Futures markets currently embed gradual policy firming later in the year. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision, August CPI release, and labor market updates that could shift trader consensus on the rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,535,419Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent soft July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a weaker-than-expected jobs report with payrolls declining 23,000, have tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening at the 3.50%-3.75% funds rate target. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, elevated energy prices, and a divided FOMC—with three members dissenting in favor of a September hike—create a balanced market-implied probability near 50% for any rate increase during 2026. Futures markets currently embed gradual policy firming later in the year. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision, August CPI release, and labor market updates that could shift trader consensus on the rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$7,535,419Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent soft July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a weaker-than-expected jobs report with payrolls declining 23,000, have tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening at the 3.50%-3.75% funds rate target. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, elevated energy prices, and a divided FOMC—with three members dissenting in favor of a September hike—create a balanced market-implied probability near 50% for any rate increase during 2026. Futures markets currently embed gradual policy firming later in the year. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision, August CPI release, and labor market updates that could shift trader consensus on the rate path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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