Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Qingdao on May 14?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 14?
23°C or below 86%
24°C 11%
25°C 4.0%
26°C 3.1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 14, 2026
23°C or below
86%
24°C
11%
25°C
4%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
23°C or below 86%
24°C 11%
25°C 4.0%
26°C 3.1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 14, 2026
23°C or below
$833 KL.
86%
24°C
$433 KL.
11%
25°C
$595 KL.
4%
26°C
$288 KL.
3%
27°C
$581 KL.
1%
28°C
$668 KL.
<1%
29°C
$775 KL.
<1%
30°C
$530 KL.
<1%
31°C
$1,038 KL.
<1%
32°C
$580 KL.
<1%
33°C or higher
$1,234 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Khối lượng
$7,432Ngày kết thúc
May 14, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$7,432Ngày kết thúc
May 14, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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