Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF currently converge on an overnight low near 10 °C at the Le Bourget reference station for May 17, driven by a moderating northerly flow beneath building high pressure that permits moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 9–11 °C, as small variations in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. Recent cool advection over Île-de-France has kept temperatures below seasonal normals, yet the stabilizing ridge limits further drops, producing the observed 36 % probability on 10 °C versus 34.5 % on 9 °C and 21.5 % on 11 °C. Traders weigh these subtle thermodynamic thresholds against historical May minima averaging near 10 °C.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Paris on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 17?
10°C 37%
9°C 35%
11°C 18%
12°C or higher 3.4%
MỚI
MỚI
May 17, 2026
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
35%
10°C
45%
11°C
22%
12°C or higher
3%
10°C 37%
9°C 35%
11°C 18%
12°C or higher 3.4%
MỚI
MỚI
May 17, 2026
2°C or below
$66 KL.
<1%
3°C
$65 KL.
<1%
4°C
$223 KL.
<1%
5°C
$340 KL.
<1%
6°C
$347 KL.
<1%
7°C
$298 KL.
<1%
8°C
$94 KL.
1%
9°C
$148 KL.
35%
10°C
$89 KL.
45%
11°C
$91 KL.
22%
12°C or higher
$279 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF currently converge on an overnight low near 10 °C at the Le Bourget reference station for May 17, driven by a moderating northerly flow beneath building high pressure that permits moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 9–11 °C, as small variations in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. Recent cool advection over Île-de-France has kept temperatures below seasonal normals, yet the stabilizing ridge limits further drops, producing the observed 36 % probability on 10 °C versus 34.5 % on 9 °C and 21.5 % on 11 °C. Traders weigh these subtle thermodynamic thresholds against historical May minima averaging near 10 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,039Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF currently converge on an overnight low near 10 °C at the Le Bourget reference station for May 17, driven by a moderating northerly flow beneath building high pressure that permits moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 9–11 °C, as small variations in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. Recent cool advection over Île-de-France has kept temperatures below seasonal normals, yet the stabilizing ridge limits further drops, producing the observed 36 % probability on 10 °C versus 34.5 % on 9 °C and 21.5 % on 11 °C. Traders weigh these subtle thermodynamic thresholds against historical May minima averaging near 10 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$2,039Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETEnsemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF currently converge on an overnight low near 10 °C at the Le Bourget reference station for May 17, driven by a moderating northerly flow beneath building high pressure that permits moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 9–11 °C, as small variations in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. Recent cool advection over Île-de-France has kept temperatures below seasonal normals, yet the stabilizing ridge limits further drops, producing the observed 36 % probability on 10 °C versus 34.5 % on 9 °C and 21.5 % on 11 °C. Traders weigh these subtle thermodynamic thresholds against historical May minima averaging near 10 °C.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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