Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF models indicate a daily high of 22–24°C for Qingdao on May 17 under a weak high-pressure ridge and moderate southerly flow that promotes modest daytime warming with limited cloud cover. This consensus underpins the market’s clustering around 23–24°C outcomes while allowing for variance from slight shifts in sea breezes off the Yellow Sea or afternoon convection. Mid-May climatological highs in Qingdao typically range 19–23°C, so the projected values sit near the upper end of the seasonal norm. Key variables include the strength and timing of the southerly advection, boundary-layer moisture, and any model adjustments in the final 24 hours that could alter peak readings by 1–2°C before official station observations resolve the market.