Current forecast guidance from MetService and global models positions 14°C as the leading outcome for Wellington’s daily maximum on May 18, reflecting mid-autumn high-pressure dominance over the South Island that favors light northerly flow and moderate daytime warming. Historical May maxima at Kelburn average near 14°C, with day-to-day swings of 1–2°C driven by the timing of any southerly change or increased cloud cover that limits insolation. Recent fine, settled conditions across the lower North Island have kept overnight minima low while supporting gradual daytime recovery, though a late-week southerly surge remains possible and could cap the high at 13°C. Trader consensus at 41.5% for 14°C and 31% for 15°C captures this narrow range of model solutions, with new short-range runs expected to refine the outcome before resolution.