New York's 12th congressional district, an open seat following longtime Democratic incumbent Jerry Nadler's retirement, remains a strongly Democratic stronghold with a partisan voting index around D+33. The June 23 primary features a crowded field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, along with Jack Schlossberg and George Conway, yet the general election on November 3 faces no credible Republican challengers. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects the district's reliable electoral math, consistent historical margins exceeding 60 points, and absence of viable opposition. Factors that could narrow this lead include an unforeseen primary scandal, a high-profile Republican recruit, or an unusually strong national midterm wave, though each faces significant structural barriers in this Manhattan-based constituency.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$17,171 KL.
$17,171 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$17,171 KL.
$17,171 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,681 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$2,490 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 12th congressional district, an open seat following longtime Democratic incumbent Jerry Nadler's retirement, remains a strongly Democratic stronghold with a partisan voting index around D+33. The June 23 primary features a crowded field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, along with Jack Schlossberg and George Conway, yet the general election on November 3 faces no credible Republican challengers. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects the district's reliable electoral math, consistent historical margins exceeding 60 points, and absence of viable opposition. Factors that could narrow this lead include an unforeseen primary scandal, a high-profile Republican recruit, or an unusually strong national midterm wave, though each faces significant structural barriers in this Manhattan-based constituency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$17,171Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 12th congressional district, an open seat following longtime Democratic incumbent Jerry Nadler's retirement, remains a strongly Democratic stronghold with a partisan voting index around D+33. The June 23 primary features a crowded field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, along with Jack Schlossberg and George Conway, yet the general election on November 3 faces no credible Republican challengers. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects the district's reliable electoral math, consistent historical margins exceeding 60 points, and absence of viable opposition. Factors that could narrow this lead include an unforeseen primary scandal, a high-profile Republican recruit, or an unusually strong national midterm wave, though each faces significant structural barriers in this Manhattan-based constituency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$17,171Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York's 12th congressional district, an open seat following longtime Democratic incumbent Jerry Nadler's retirement, remains a strongly Democratic stronghold with a partisan voting index around D+33. The June 23 primary features a crowded field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, along with Jack Schlossberg and George Conway, yet the general election on November 3 faces no credible Republican challengers. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects the district's reliable electoral math, consistent historical margins exceeding 60 points, and absence of viable opposition. Factors that could narrow this lead include an unforeseen primary scandal, a high-profile Republican recruit, or an unusually strong national midterm wave, though each faces significant structural barriers in this Manhattan-based constituency.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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