Recent US economic data releases, including May employment figures and April retail sales, have kept Q2 2026 GDP growth probabilities tightly clustered between 2.0–3.5%, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding the highest market-implied odds at 27.5%. Traders are weighing resilient consumer spending and steady business investment against moderating labor market signals and potential drag from elevated Treasury yields. Forward-looking indicators such as PMI surveys and initial claims point to moderate expansion near trend levels, while uncertainty around fiscal policy implementation and net exports adds volatility across the lower and higher ranges. The next CPI release and June employment report represent key swing factors that could shift sentiment ahead of the BEA’s advance estimate.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.0–2.5% 28%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 19%
≥3.5% 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
10%
2.0–2.5%
28%
2.5–3.0%
21%
3.0–3.5%
19%
≥3.5%
13%
2.0–2.5% 28%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 19%
≥3.5% 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
$1,129 KL.
2%
1.0–1.5%
$729 KL.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$783 KL.
10%
2.0–2.5%
$1,371 KL.
28%
2.5–3.0%
$898 KL.
21%
3.0–3.5%
$887 KL.
19%
≥3.5%
$984 KL.
13%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent US economic data releases, including May employment figures and April retail sales, have kept Q2 2026 GDP growth probabilities tightly clustered between 2.0–3.5%, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding the highest market-implied odds at 27.5%. Traders are weighing resilient consumer spending and steady business investment against moderating labor market signals and potential drag from elevated Treasury yields. Forward-looking indicators such as PMI surveys and initial claims point to moderate expansion near trend levels, while uncertainty around fiscal policy implementation and net exports adds volatility across the lower and higher ranges. The next CPI release and June employment report represent key swing factors that could shift sentiment ahead of the BEA’s advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Thị trường mở: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6,781Ngày kết thúc
Jul 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent US economic data releases, including May employment figures and April retail sales, have kept Q2 2026 GDP growth probabilities tightly clustered between 2.0–3.5%, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding the highest market-implied odds at 27.5%. Traders are weighing resilient consumer spending and steady business investment against moderating labor market signals and potential drag from elevated Treasury yields. Forward-looking indicators such as PMI surveys and initial claims point to moderate expansion near trend levels, while uncertainty around fiscal policy implementation and net exports adds volatility across the lower and higher ranges. The next CPI release and June employment report represent key swing factors that could shift sentiment ahead of the BEA’s advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Khối lượng
$6,781Ngày kết thúc
Jul 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent US economic data releases, including May employment figures and April retail sales, have kept Q2 2026 GDP growth probabilities tightly clustered between 2.0–3.5%, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding the highest market-implied odds at 27.5%. Traders are weighing resilient consumer spending and steady business investment against moderating labor market signals and potential drag from elevated Treasury yields. Forward-looking indicators such as PMI surveys and initial claims point to moderate expansion near trend levels, while uncertainty around fiscal policy implementation and net exports adds volatility across the lower and higher ranges. The next CPI release and June employment report represent key swing factors that could shift sentiment ahead of the BEA’s advance estimate.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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