Traders view the race for the number two free spot in the US Apple App Store on September 18 as highly contested, with Vinted at 28.5% implied probability narrowly ahead of Google Gemini at 27% and Muse at 24.5%. The clustered probabilities around 20-50% for several apps highlight daily ranking volatility tied to user downloads, engagement metrics, and promotional activity in the competitive mobile ecosystem. AI-focused entries like Gemini and ChatGPT compete against established platforms and marketplaces through model updates and feature rollouts, while social and utility apps such as TikTok variants or Google Maps vie for visibility via algorithm changes and regional trends. Resolution tomorrow limits major catalysts, though last-minute marketing or viral spikes could shift outcomes in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Vinted 41%
Google Gemini 27%
Muse 25%
ChatGPT 21%
Vinted
29%

Google Gemini
27%

Muse
25%

ChatGPT
21%

Polymarket
5%

TikTok Pro - Events
5%

Google 地圖
3%
Vinted 41%
Google Gemini 27%
Muse 25%
ChatGPT 21%
Vinted
29%

Google Gemini
27%

Muse
25%

ChatGPT
21%

Polymarket
5%

TikTok Pro - Events
5%

Google 地圖
3%
If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.
To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
市場開放時間: Sep 11, 2026, 8:30 PM ET
If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.
To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Traders view the race for the number two free spot in the US Apple App Store on September 18 as highly contested, with Vinted at 28.5% implied probability narrowly ahead of Google Gemini at 27% and Muse at 24.5%. The clustered probabilities around 20-50% for several apps highlight daily ranking volatility tied to user downloads, engagement metrics, and promotional activity in the competitive mobile ecosystem. AI-focused entries like Gemini and ChatGPT compete against established platforms and marketplaces through model updates and feature rollouts, while social and utility apps such as TikTok variants or Google Maps vie for visibility via algorithm changes and regional trends. Resolution tomorrow limits major catalysts, though last-minute marketing or viral spikes could shift outcomes in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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