icon for 2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？

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Ryan Petersen

2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？

是

<1% 機率

$137,556 交易量

$137,556 交易量

2026-06-30

是

<1% 機率

$137,556 交易量

$137,556 交易量

2026-06-30

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.

警惕外部連結哦。

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年上半年有超過2000艘集裝箱船通過蘇伊士運河？" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 1¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 1% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？" has generated $137.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？" is "2026年上半年有超過2000艘集裝箱船通過蘇伊士運河？" at just 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

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Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $137.6K traded on “2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 1¢ for "2026年上半年有超過2000艘集裝箱船通過蘇伊士運河？" in the "2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 1% chance that "2026年上半年有超過2000艘集裝箱船通過蘇伊士運河？" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 1¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 99¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 30, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？" market has a growing discussion of 6 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年上半年蘇伊士運河超過2k艘集裝箱船過境？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.