Lula holds the strongest position in Amazonas first-round polling due to sustained support in the state's interior municipalities, which account for a substantial share of the electorate, while facing tighter competition in Manaus. Recent August surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data and Quaest show him at 38-40% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 35-39%, with all other candidates in low single digits or below. Lula's May visit to the region and opposition vulnerabilities have reinforced this edge ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders price these state-specific dynamics and the fragmented field into the 72.5% implied probability for Lula finishing first, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing local voting patterns and turnout factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於魯拉 72%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 27%
Clariana Barao <1%
埃德米爾森·科斯塔 <1%
$26,922 交易量
$26,922 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉
62%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅
27%
Clariana Barao
<1%
埃德米爾森·科斯塔
<1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
<1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
<1%
帕布羅·馬沙爾
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
<1%
羅納多·凱亞多
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
獸醫威爾森·格拉西
<1%
澤馬
<1%
魯拉 72%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 27%
Clariana Barao <1%
埃德米爾森·科斯塔 <1%
$26,922 交易量
$26,922 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉
$8,525 交易量
62%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅
$9,740 交易量
27%
Clariana Barao
$921 交易量
<1%
埃德米爾森·科斯塔
$729 交易量
<1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
$571 交易量
<1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
$747 交易量
<1%
帕布羅·馬沙爾
$836 交易量
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
$1,149 交易量
<1%
羅納多·凱亞多
$756 交易量
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$855 交易量
<1%
Samara
$542 交易量
<1%
獸醫威爾森·格拉西
$908 交易量
<1%
澤馬
$641 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position in Amazonas first-round polling due to sustained support in the state's interior municipalities, which account for a substantial share of the electorate, while facing tighter competition in Manaus. Recent August surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data and Quaest show him at 38-40% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 35-39%, with all other candidates in low single digits or below. Lula's May visit to the region and opposition vulnerabilities have reinforced this edge ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders price these state-specific dynamics and the fragmented field into the 72.5% implied probability for Lula finishing first, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing local voting patterns and turnout factors.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
交易量
$26,922結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position in Amazonas first-round polling due to sustained support in the state's interior municipalities, which account for a substantial share of the electorate, while facing tighter competition in Manaus. Recent August surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data and Quaest show him at 38-40% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 35-39%, with all other candidates in low single digits or below. Lula's May visit to the region and opposition vulnerabilities have reinforced this edge ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders price these state-specific dynamics and the fragmented field into the 72.5% implied probability for Lula finishing first, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing local voting patterns and turnout factors.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$26,922結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETLula holds the strongest position in Amazonas first-round polling due to sustained support in the state's interior municipalities, which account for a substantial share of the electorate, while facing tighter competition in Manaus. Recent August surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data and Quaest show him at 38-40% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 35-39%, with all other candidates in low single digits or below. Lula's May visit to the region and opposition vulnerabilities have reinforced this edge ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders price these state-specific dynamics and the fragmented field into the 72.5% implied probability for Lula finishing first, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing local voting patterns and turnout factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions