Google's upcoming I/O developer conference on May 19–20 serves as the dominant catalyst behind the 91% market-implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent API logs and benchmark submissions have surfaced model identifiers consistent with Gemini 3.2 variants, following the established pattern that preceded the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite. Competitive positioning against models like GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's latest offerings has accelerated internal timelines, with traders viewing the keynote as the natural venue for an official announcement or soft launch. While the strong consensus reflects credible reporting and historical cadence, outcomes could shift if the model debuts under a different naming convention, experiences a one-day delay into May 20, or receives only partial feature rollout during the event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於May 19 92%
May 18 4.5%
May 20 3.4%
May 22 1.0%
$304,763 交易量
$304,763 交易量
2026-05-31
May 16
<1%
May 17
1%
May 18
5%
May 19
92%
May 20
3%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 92%
May 18 4.5%
May 20 3.4%
May 22 1.0%
$304,763 交易量
$304,763 交易量
2026-05-31
May 16
$7,407 交易量
<1%
May 17
$11,353 交易量
1%
May 18
$37,826 交易量
5%
May 19
$109,898 交易量
92%
May 20
$16,837 交易量
3%
May 21
$10,504 交易量
1%
May 22
$12,061 交易量
1%
May 23
$4,089 交易量
<1%
May 24
$4,867 交易量
<1%
May 25
$3,317 交易量
<1%
May 26
$3,908 交易量
<1%
May 27
$4,353 交易量
<1%
May 28
$3,001 交易量
<1%
May 29
$2,392 交易量
<1%
May 30
$6,198 交易量
<1%
May 31
$5,574 交易量
<1%
No release by May 31
$19,887 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's upcoming I/O developer conference on May 19–20 serves as the dominant catalyst behind the 91% market-implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent API logs and benchmark submissions have surfaced model identifiers consistent with Gemini 3.2 variants, following the established pattern that preceded the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite. Competitive positioning against models like GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's latest offerings has accelerated internal timelines, with traders viewing the keynote as the natural venue for an official announcement or soft launch. While the strong consensus reflects credible reporting and historical cadence, outcomes could shift if the model debuts under a different naming convention, experiences a one-day delay into May 20, or receives only partial feature rollout during the event.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
交易量
$304,763結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's upcoming I/O developer conference on May 19–20 serves as the dominant catalyst behind the 91% market-implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent API logs and benchmark submissions have surfaced model identifiers consistent with Gemini 3.2 variants, following the established pattern that preceded the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite. Competitive positioning against models like GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's latest offerings has accelerated internal timelines, with traders viewing the keynote as the natural venue for an official announcement or soft launch. While the strong consensus reflects credible reporting and historical cadence, outcomes could shift if the model debuts under a different naming convention, experiences a one-day delay into May 20, or receives only partial feature rollout during the event.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$304,763結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's upcoming I/O developer conference on May 19–20 serves as the dominant catalyst behind the 91% market-implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent API logs and benchmark submissions have surfaced model identifiers consistent with Gemini 3.2 variants, following the established pattern that preceded the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite. Competitive positioning against models like GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's latest offerings has accelerated internal timelines, with traders viewing the keynote as the natural venue for an official announcement or soft launch. While the strong consensus reflects credible reporting and historical cadence, outcomes could shift if the model debuts under a different naming convention, experiences a one-day delay into May 20, or receives only partial feature rollout during the event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions