Current forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and others indicate a high near 24–26°C for Tokyo on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly flow that limits solar heating and advects cooler marine air. High humidity and low-level stratus further suppress daytime warming below the seasonal normal of 26.5°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 23–26°C because small differences in model timing of precipitation or wind shifts could alter peak readings by 1–2°C, while stronger ridging or clearing would be needed for outliers above 27°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月19日東京氣溫最高？
9月19日東京氣溫最高？
25°C 31%
26°C 30%
24°C 28%
23°C 22%
最新
最新
2026-09-19
20°C或以下
<1%
21°C
3%
22°C
5%
23°C
22%
24°C
28%
25°C
29%
26°C
30%
27°C
8%
28°C
6%
29°C
4%
30°C或更高
<1%
25°C 31%
26°C 30%
24°C 28%
23°C 22%
最新
最新
2026-09-19
20°C或以下
$361 交易量
<1%
21°C
$0 交易量
3%
22°C
$0 交易量
5%
23°C
$125 交易量
22%
24°C
$17 交易量
28%
25°C
$3 交易量
29%
26°C
$25 交易量
30%
27°C
$9 交易量
8%
28°C
$0 交易量
6%
29°C
$0 交易量
4%
30°C或更高
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and others indicate a high near 24–26°C for Tokyo on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly flow that limits solar heating and advects cooler marine air. High humidity and low-level stratus further suppress daytime warming below the seasonal normal of 26.5°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 23–26°C because small differences in model timing of precipitation or wind shifts could alter peak readings by 1–2°C, while stronger ridging or clearing would be needed for outliers above 27°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$529結束日期
2026-09-19市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and others indicate a high near 24–26°C for Tokyo on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly flow that limits solar heating and advects cooler marine air. High humidity and low-level stratus further suppress daytime warming below the seasonal normal of 26.5°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 23–26°C because small differences in model timing of precipitation or wind shifts could alter peak readings by 1–2°C, while stronger ridging or clearing would be needed for outliers above 27°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$529結束日期
2026-09-19市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETCurrent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and others indicate a high near 24–26°C for Tokyo on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly flow that limits solar heating and advects cooler marine air. High humidity and low-level stratus further suppress daytime warming below the seasonal normal of 26.5°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 23–26°C because small differences in model timing of precipitation or wind shifts could alter peak readings by 1–2°C, while stronger ridging or clearing would be needed for outliers above 27°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions