Traders have converged on a 13°C maximum for Wellington on August 15 due to MetService forecasts and observational data showing a daytime high near the seasonal average of 12–13°C. Strong southerly winds are advecting cooler polar maritime air masses across the region, combined with persistent low cloud cover that limits solar heating and surface warming. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the area, where average highs hover around 12°C amid frequent southerly outbreaks. The market-implied 100% probability on 13°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and real-time model runs. A shift toward lighter winds or partial clearing could allow modest warming above the threshold, while stronger advection or unexpected frontal activity might push the reading lower.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月15日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
8月15日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
13°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$83,090 交易量
$83,090 交易量
2026-08-15
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$83,090 交易量
$83,090 交易量
2026-08-15
9°C or below
$1,154 交易量
No
10°C
$285 交易量
No
11°C
$1,208 交易量
No
12°C
$12,663 交易量
No
13°C
$19,332 交易量
Yes
14°C
$17,228 交易量
No
15°C
$11,816 交易量
No
16°C
$12,896 交易量
No
17°C
$4,527 交易量
No
18°C
$1,564 交易量
No
19°C or higher
$417 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a 13°C maximum for Wellington on August 15 due to MetService forecasts and observational data showing a daytime high near the seasonal average of 12–13°C. Strong southerly winds are advecting cooler polar maritime air masses across the region, combined with persistent low cloud cover that limits solar heating and surface warming. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the area, where average highs hover around 12°C amid frequent southerly outbreaks. The market-implied 100% probability on 13°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and real-time model runs. A shift toward lighter winds or partial clearing could allow modest warming above the threshold, while stronger advection or unexpected frontal activity might push the reading lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$83,090結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a 13°C maximum for Wellington on August 15 due to MetService forecasts and observational data showing a daytime high near the seasonal average of 12–13°C. Strong southerly winds are advecting cooler polar maritime air masses across the region, combined with persistent low cloud cover that limits solar heating and surface warming. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the area, where average highs hover around 12°C amid frequent southerly outbreaks. The market-implied 100% probability on 13°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and real-time model runs. A shift toward lighter winds or partial clearing could allow modest warming above the threshold, while stronger advection or unexpected frontal activity might push the reading lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$83,090結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Traders have converged on a 13°C maximum for Wellington on August 15 due to MetService forecasts and observational data showing a daytime high near the seasonal average of 12–13°C. Strong southerly winds are advecting cooler polar maritime air masses across the region, combined with persistent low cloud cover that limits solar heating and surface warming. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the area, where average highs hover around 12°C amid frequent southerly outbreaks. The market-implied 100% probability on 13°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and real-time model runs. A shift toward lighter winds or partial clearing could allow modest warming above the threshold, while stronger advection or unexpected frontal activity might push the reading lower.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions