Ongoing regional tensions following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 have kept the Tehran FIR under significant restrictions, with full commercial transit banned since then and only partial eastern reopenings in April for limited overflights. Airlines continue avoiding the airspace due to military alerts and risks of misidentification, while Iranian authorities maintain high alert status for air defenses. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether these conditions will trigger a qualifying major closure before mid-2026 deadlines, balanced against gradual operational recovery at select airports and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate. Upcoming military exercises or escalation signals could shift probabilities quickly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Iran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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