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icon for Lee Jae-myung在2027年之前被彈劾？
政治·韓國

Lee Jae-myung在2027年之前被彈劾？

icon for Lee Jae-myung在2027年之前被彈劾？
政治·韓國

Lee Jae-myung在2027年之前被彈劾？

12月 31

12月 31

是

8% 機率
Polymarket

$20,407 交易量

是

8% 機率
Polymarket

$20,407 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**President Lee Jae-myung faces low impeachment risk before 2027 primarily because his Democratic Party of Korea holds a clear National Assembly majority (161 of 300 seats), while the main opposition People Power Party holds 110.** Passing an impeachment motion requires a majority proposal followed by a two-thirds (200-vote) supermajority, a threshold the opposition cannot reach without significant cross-party defections that have not materialized. A June 2026 citizen petition demanding impeachment over suspended criminal cases (property development and election law matters) quickly exceeded 100,000 signatures and reached committee review, yet analysts noted it had negligible prospects of advancing given the ruling bloc’s control. Recent August 2026 tensions center on Supreme Court justice nominations and Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae’s nomination process, prompting some ruling-party calls to consider the chief justice’s impeachment; opposition figures have countered by framing related disputes as potential grounds against Lee himself. These exchanges remain confined to partisan rhetoric without producing a viable motion against the president. Lee’s approval rating hovers near 45 percent after earlier declines tied to local-election logistics issues and economic concerns, providing no broad public momentum for removal. With roughly 16 months until the end of 2026, scheduled legislative and judicial calendar items offer limited additional catalysts capable of altering the parliamentary math. Traders therefore price a high probability that the constitutional barriers and majority dynamics will hold through the period.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$20,407
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**President Lee Jae-myung faces low impeachment risk before 2027 primarily because his Democratic Party of Korea holds a clear National Assembly majority (161 of 300 seats), while the main opposition People Power Party holds 110.** Passing an impeachment motion requires a majority proposal followed by a two-thirds (200-vote) supermajority, a threshold the opposition cannot reach without significant cross-party defections that have not materialized. A June 2026 citizen petition demanding impeachment over suspended criminal cases (property development and election law matters) quickly exceeded 100,000 signatures and reached committee review, yet analysts noted it had negligible prospects of advancing given the ruling bloc’s control. Recent August 2026 tensions center on Supreme Court justice nominations and Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae’s nomination process, prompting some ruling-party calls to consider the chief justice’s impeachment; opposition figures have countered by framing related disputes as potential grounds against Lee himself. These exchanges remain confined to partisan rhetoric without producing a viable motion against the president. Lee’s approval rating hovers near 45 percent after earlier declines tied to local-election logistics issues and economic concerns, providing no broad public momentum for removal. With roughly 16 months until the end of 2026, scheduled legislative and judicial calendar items offer limited additional catalysts capable of altering the parliamentary math. Traders therefore price a high probability that the constitutional barriers and majority dynamics will hold through the period.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$20,407
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lee Jae-myung在2027年之前被彈劾？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "李在明會在2027年前被彈劾嗎？" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lee Jae-myung在2027年之前被彈劾？" has generated $20.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lee Jae-myung在2027年之前被彈劾？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Lee Jae-myung在2027年之前被彈劾？" is "李在明會在2027年前被彈劾嗎？" at just 8%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Lee Jae-myung在2027年之前被彈劾？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.