**Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This positioning aligns with official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple meteorological sources projecting a minimum of 26–27°C under cloudy, humid subtropical conditions with thunderstorms possible. Typical late-August climatology for the region features nighttime lows near 26°C due to high humidity, cloud cover, and minimal radiative cooling, with current model runs showing no significant cold-air intrusion or clear-sky episodes that would allow temperatures to fall further. The narrow spread in outcomes reflects high confidence in this range, as verified observations and ensemble forecasts converge on these values. A realistic challenge could arise from localized measurement differences at official stations or an unexpected late-day clearing that enhances cooling, though such shifts remain low-probability given persistent moisture and storm activity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日廣州最低溫度？
8月21日廣州最低溫度？
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$2,807 交易量
$2,807 交易量
2026-08-21
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$2,807 交易量
$2,807 交易量
2026-08-21
22°C or below
$664 交易量
No
23°C
$286 交易量
No
24°C
$249 交易量
No
25°C
$263 交易量
No
26°C
$189 交易量
No
27°C
$547 交易量
Yes
28°C
$218 交易量
No
29°C
$105 交易量
No
30°C
$95 交易量
No
31°C
$95 交易量
No
32°C or higher
$95 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This positioning aligns with official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple meteorological sources projecting a minimum of 26–27°C under cloudy, humid subtropical conditions with thunderstorms possible. Typical late-August climatology for the region features nighttime lows near 26°C due to high humidity, cloud cover, and minimal radiative cooling, with current model runs showing no significant cold-air intrusion or clear-sky episodes that would allow temperatures to fall further. The narrow spread in outcomes reflects high confidence in this range, as verified observations and ensemble forecasts converge on these values. A realistic challenge could arise from localized measurement differences at official stations or an unexpected late-day clearing that enhances cooling, though such shifts remain low-probability given persistent moisture and storm activity.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
交易量
$2,807結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This positioning aligns with official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple meteorological sources projecting a minimum of 26–27°C under cloudy, humid subtropical conditions with thunderstorms possible. Typical late-August climatology for the region features nighttime lows near 26°C due to high humidity, cloud cover, and minimal radiative cooling, with current model runs showing no significant cold-air intrusion or clear-sky episodes that would allow temperatures to fall further. The narrow spread in outcomes reflects high confidence in this range, as verified observations and ensemble forecasts converge on these values. A realistic challenge could arise from localized measurement differences at official stations or an unexpected late-day clearing that enhances cooling, though such shifts remain low-probability given persistent moisture and storm activity.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,807結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
**Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This positioning aligns with official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple meteorological sources projecting a minimum of 26–27°C under cloudy, humid subtropical conditions with thunderstorms possible. Typical late-August climatology for the region features nighttime lows near 26°C due to high humidity, cloud cover, and minimal radiative cooling, with current model runs showing no significant cold-air intrusion or clear-sky episodes that would allow temperatures to fall further. The narrow spread in outcomes reflects high confidence in this range, as verified observations and ensemble forecasts converge on these values. A realistic challenge could arise from localized measurement differences at official stations or an unexpected late-day clearing that enhances cooling, though such shifts remain low-probability given persistent moisture and storm activity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions