Recent forecast model consensus from agencies like the German Weather Service and ECMWF points to an overnight low of 8°C in Munich on September 15, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Clear skies, light easterly winds, and stable high pressure have limited cloud cover and radiative cooling overnight, aligning observations with numerical guidance that projects minimum temperatures near this threshold rather than the seasonal average low of 10.1°C. Historical September extremes reaching 0.5°C demonstrate variability is possible, yet current atmospheric conditions and model agreement make substantial deviations unlikely. A sudden shift in steering patterns or unforecasted cloud cover could push readings lower, though resolution criteria favor the consensus value absent major revisions in final observational data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日慕尼黑最低溫度？
9月15日慕尼黑最低溫度？
8°C 99.5%
4°C或以下 23%
6°C <1%
5°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
4°C或以下
23%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
100%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C或以上
<1%
8°C 99.5%
4°C或以下 23%
6°C <1%
5°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
4°C或以下
$10 交易量
23%
5°C
$256 交易量
1%
6°C
$409 交易量
1%
7°C
$139 交易量
1%
8°C
$321 交易量
100%
9°C
$123 交易量
<1%
10°C
$86 交易量
<1%
11°C
$70 交易量
<1%
12°C
$80 交易量
<1%
13°C
$32 交易量
<1%
14°C或以上
$32 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies like the German Weather Service and ECMWF points to an overnight low of 8°C in Munich on September 15, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Clear skies, light easterly winds, and stable high pressure have limited cloud cover and radiative cooling overnight, aligning observations with numerical guidance that projects minimum temperatures near this threshold rather than the seasonal average low of 10.1°C. Historical September extremes reaching 0.5°C demonstrate variability is possible, yet current atmospheric conditions and model agreement make substantial deviations unlikely. A sudden shift in steering patterns or unforecasted cloud cover could push readings lower, though resolution criteria favor the consensus value absent major revisions in final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
交易量
$1,557結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies like the German Weather Service and ECMWF points to an overnight low of 8°C in Munich on September 15, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Clear skies, light easterly winds, and stable high pressure have limited cloud cover and radiative cooling overnight, aligning observations with numerical guidance that projects minimum temperatures near this threshold rather than the seasonal average low of 10.1°C. Historical September extremes reaching 0.5°C demonstrate variability is possible, yet current atmospheric conditions and model agreement make substantial deviations unlikely. A sudden shift in steering patterns or unforecasted cloud cover could push readings lower, though resolution criteria favor the consensus value absent major revisions in final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,557結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETRecent forecast model consensus from agencies like the German Weather Service and ECMWF points to an overnight low of 8°C in Munich on September 15, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Clear skies, light easterly winds, and stable high pressure have limited cloud cover and radiative cooling overnight, aligning observations with numerical guidance that projects minimum temperatures near this threshold rather than the seasonal average low of 10.1°C. Historical September extremes reaching 0.5°C demonstrate variability is possible, yet current atmospheric conditions and model agreement make substantial deviations unlikely. A sudden shift in steering patterns or unforecasted cloud cover could push readings lower, though resolution criteria favor the consensus value absent major revisions in final observational data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions