Current meteorological forecasts and observational data from sources including NOAA-aligned models and regional stations indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on September 21 will reach approximately 22°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly flow. This supports the market-implied 98% probability, consistent with typical late-September radiative cooling patterns in the humid subtropical climate where daytime highs near 29°C give way to overnight lows without strong cold-air advection. Key variables include dew points around 19–20°C and minimal precipitation, which limit deviations. A realistic challenge would require a sharper wind shift or thicker cloud cover altering the cooling rate, though model consensus and current conditions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月21日上海最低溫度？
9月21日上海最低溫度？
22°C 99%
21°C 2%
20°C <1%
17°C或以下 <1%
$20,724 交易量
$20,724 交易量
2026-09-21
17°C或以下
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
99%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C或更高
<1%
22°C 99%
21°C 2%
20°C <1%
17°C或以下 <1%
$20,724 交易量
$20,724 交易量
2026-09-21
17°C或以下
$4,934 交易量
<1%
18°C
$7,546 交易量
<1%
19°C
$36 交易量
<1%
20°C
$540 交易量
<1%
21°C
$515 交易量
2%
22°C
$2,246 交易量
99%
23°C
$3,340 交易量
<1%
24°C
$547 交易量
<1%
25°C
$36 交易量
<1%
26°C
$47 交易量
<1%
27°C或更高
$938 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts and observational data from sources including NOAA-aligned models and regional stations indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on September 21 will reach approximately 22°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly flow. This supports the market-implied 98% probability, consistent with typical late-September radiative cooling patterns in the humid subtropical climate where daytime highs near 29°C give way to overnight lows without strong cold-air advection. Key variables include dew points around 19–20°C and minimal precipitation, which limit deviations. A realistic challenge would require a sharper wind shift or thicker cloud cover altering the cooling rate, though model consensus and current conditions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$20,724結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts and observational data from sources including NOAA-aligned models and regional stations indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on September 21 will reach approximately 22°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly flow. This supports the market-implied 98% probability, consistent with typical late-September radiative cooling patterns in the humid subtropical climate where daytime highs near 29°C give way to overnight lows without strong cold-air advection. Key variables include dew points around 19–20°C and minimal precipitation, which limit deviations. A realistic challenge would require a sharper wind shift or thicker cloud cover altering the cooling rate, though model consensus and current conditions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$20,724結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent meteorological forecasts and observational data from sources including NOAA-aligned models and regional stations indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on September 21 will reach approximately 22°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly flow. This supports the market-implied 98% probability, consistent with typical late-September radiative cooling patterns in the humid subtropical climate where daytime highs near 29°C give way to overnight lows without strong cold-air advection. Key variables include dew points around 19–20°C and minimal precipitation, which limit deviations. A realistic challenge would require a sharper wind shift or thicker cloud cover altering the cooling rate, though model consensus and current conditions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions