Recent model consensus points to a subtropical high weakening over southern China, allowing increased moisture and convective activity to reach Guangzhou by September 21. This shift favors scattered to moderate rain and thunderstorms, especially afternoon hours, which historically caps daily maxima through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Official guidance from the Guangzhou Meteorological Service and global ensembles show highs most likely between 33–35 °C, with 34–36 °C outcomes carrying the highest market-implied probabilities. Timing of peak convection remains the key variable: earlier or heavier rainfall would favor the lower side of that range, while delayed or lighter activity could permit brief spikes near 36 °C. Historical September 21 averages near 31.5 °C provide baseline context, but the current pattern favors slightly above-normal readings before the rain arrives. Updated short-range model runs and local radar trends over the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月21日廣州最高溫度？
9月21日廣州最高溫度？
35°C 24%
36°C 24%
33°C 18%
34°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
27°C或以下
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
9%
33°C
18%
34°C
18%
35°C
24%
36°C
24%
37°C或更高
12%
35°C 24%
36°C 24%
33°C 18%
34°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
27°C或以下
$6 交易量
<1%
28°C
$0 交易量
1%
29°C
$0 交易量
1%
30°C
$0 交易量
1%
31°C
$8 交易量
3%
32°C
$19 交易量
9%
33°C
$5 交易量
18%
34°C
$0 交易量
18%
35°C
$0 交易量
24%
36°C
$0 交易量
24%
37°C或更高
$0 交易量
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to a subtropical high weakening over southern China, allowing increased moisture and convective activity to reach Guangzhou by September 21. This shift favors scattered to moderate rain and thunderstorms, especially afternoon hours, which historically caps daily maxima through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Official guidance from the Guangzhou Meteorological Service and global ensembles show highs most likely between 33–35 °C, with 34–36 °C outcomes carrying the highest market-implied probabilities. Timing of peak convection remains the key variable: earlier or heavier rainfall would favor the lower side of that range, while delayed or lighter activity could permit brief spikes near 36 °C. Historical September 21 averages near 31.5 °C provide baseline context, but the current pattern favors slightly above-normal readings before the rain arrives. Updated short-range model runs and local radar trends over the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$38結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to a subtropical high weakening over southern China, allowing increased moisture and convective activity to reach Guangzhou by September 21. This shift favors scattered to moderate rain and thunderstorms, especially afternoon hours, which historically caps daily maxima through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Official guidance from the Guangzhou Meteorological Service and global ensembles show highs most likely between 33–35 °C, with 34–36 °C outcomes carrying the highest market-implied probabilities. Timing of peak convection remains the key variable: earlier or heavier rainfall would favor the lower side of that range, while delayed or lighter activity could permit brief spikes near 36 °C. Historical September 21 averages near 31.5 °C provide baseline context, but the current pattern favors slightly above-normal readings before the rain arrives. Updated short-range model runs and local radar trends over the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$38結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETRecent model consensus points to a subtropical high weakening over southern China, allowing increased moisture and convective activity to reach Guangzhou by September 21. This shift favors scattered to moderate rain and thunderstorms, especially afternoon hours, which historically caps daily maxima through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Official guidance from the Guangzhou Meteorological Service and global ensembles show highs most likely between 33–35 °C, with 34–36 °C outcomes carrying the highest market-implied probabilities. Timing of peak convection remains the key variable: earlier or heavier rainfall would favor the lower side of that range, while delayed or lighter activity could permit brief spikes near 36 °C. Historical September 21 averages near 31.5 °C provide baseline context, but the current pattern favors slightly above-normal readings before the rain arrives. Updated short-range model runs and local radar trends over the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions