**Thunderstorm timing and cloud cover are the main factors keeping the 32°C and 33°C outcomes nearly tied at 40.5% and 48.0% in this Manila daily maximum temperature market.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs forecast a high of 31–33°C amid the southwest monsoon, with scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms and 70–80% rain chances that can cap peaks through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. High humidity (75–90%) and light variable winds limit further warming, while Manila’s urban heat island provides a modest boost. Forecasters note model spread on exact storm initiation and coverage, which directly separates the two leading bins; clearer or delayed convection would favor 33°C, while earlier or heavier rain supports 32°C. Updated PAGASA and NHC-adjacent regional guidance later today remain the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月21日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
9月21日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
33°C 48%
32°C 42%
34°C 6%
31°C 6%
最新
$18,961 交易量
最新
$18,961 交易量
2026-09-21
28°C或以下
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
6%
32°C
42%
33°C
48%
34°C
6%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C或以上
<1%
33°C 48%
32°C 42%
34°C 6%
31°C 6%
最新
$18,961 交易量
最新
$18,961 交易量
2026-09-21
28°C或以下
$607 交易量
<1%
29°C
$680 交易量
<1%
30°C
$1,632 交易量
<1%
31°C
$4,854 交易量
6%
32°C
$3,704 交易量
42%
33°C
$4,057 交易量
48%
34°C
$2,320 交易量
6%
35°C
$934 交易量
<1%
36°C
$58 交易量
<1%
37°C
$111 交易量
<1%
38°C或以上
$4 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Thunderstorm timing and cloud cover are the main factors keeping the 32°C and 33°C outcomes nearly tied at 40.5% and 48.0% in this Manila daily maximum temperature market.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs forecast a high of 31–33°C amid the southwest monsoon, with scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms and 70–80% rain chances that can cap peaks through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. High humidity (75–90%) and light variable winds limit further warming, while Manila’s urban heat island provides a modest boost. Forecasters note model spread on exact storm initiation and coverage, which directly separates the two leading bins; clearer or delayed convection would favor 33°C, while earlier or heavier rain supports 32°C. Updated PAGASA and NHC-adjacent regional guidance later today remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
交易量
$18,961結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Thunderstorm timing and cloud cover are the main factors keeping the 32°C and 33°C outcomes nearly tied at 40.5% and 48.0% in this Manila daily maximum temperature market.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs forecast a high of 31–33°C amid the southwest monsoon, with scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms and 70–80% rain chances that can cap peaks through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. High humidity (75–90%) and light variable winds limit further warming, while Manila’s urban heat island provides a modest boost. Forecasters note model spread on exact storm initiation and coverage, which directly separates the two leading bins; clearer or delayed convection would favor 33°C, while earlier or heavier rain supports 32°C. Updated PAGASA and NHC-adjacent regional guidance later today remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$18,961結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ET**Thunderstorm timing and cloud cover are the main factors keeping the 32°C and 33°C outcomes nearly tied at 40.5% and 48.0% in this Manila daily maximum temperature market.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs forecast a high of 31–33°C amid the southwest monsoon, with scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms and 70–80% rain chances that can cap peaks through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. High humidity (75–90%) and light variable winds limit further warming, while Manila’s urban heat island provides a modest boost. Forecasters note model spread on exact storm initiation and coverage, which directly separates the two leading bins; clearer or delayed convection would favor 33°C, while earlier or heavier rain supports 32°C. Updated PAGASA and NHC-adjacent regional guidance later today remain the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions