Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo for the night of August 17–18, limiting radiative cooling and supporting overnight lows near the long-term August average of 24°C. Persistent above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific high, combined with the urban heat island effect that typically adds 1–2°C to minima, underpin the tight market split between 24°C and 25°C. Minor variations in cloud timing, wind speed, or any passing moisture could shift the exact low by 1°C, which explains the modest probabilities assigned to 23°C or 26°C. Updated JMA and global model runs expected within the next 24 hours will likely refine the outlook ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月18日東京最低溫度？
8月18日東京最低溫度？
24°C 47%
25°C 42%
26°C 8%
23°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
20°C或以下
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
7%
24°C
47%
25°C
42%
26°C
8%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C或以上
<1%
24°C 47%
25°C 42%
26°C 8%
23°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
20°C或以下
$63 交易量
<1%
21°C
$22 交易量
<1%
22°C
$83 交易量
2%
23°C
$177 交易量
7%
24°C
$240 交易量
47%
25°C
$516 交易量
42%
26°C
$100 交易量
8%
27°C
$109 交易量
1%
28°C
$73 交易量
<1%
29°C
$63 交易量
<1%
30°C或以上
$63 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo for the night of August 17–18, limiting radiative cooling and supporting overnight lows near the long-term August average of 24°C. Persistent above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific high, combined with the urban heat island effect that typically adds 1–2°C to minima, underpin the tight market split between 24°C and 25°C. Minor variations in cloud timing, wind speed, or any passing moisture could shift the exact low by 1°C, which explains the modest probabilities assigned to 23°C or 26°C. Updated JMA and global model runs expected within the next 24 hours will likely refine the outlook ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$1,510結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo for the night of August 17–18, limiting radiative cooling and supporting overnight lows near the long-term August average of 24°C. Persistent above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific high, combined with the urban heat island effect that typically adds 1–2°C to minima, underpin the tight market split between 24°C and 25°C. Minor variations in cloud timing, wind speed, or any passing moisture could shift the exact low by 1°C, which explains the modest probabilities assigned to 23°C or 26°C. Updated JMA and global model runs expected within the next 24 hours will likely refine the outlook ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,510結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo for the night of August 17–18, limiting radiative cooling and supporting overnight lows near the long-term August average of 24°C. Persistent above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific high, combined with the urban heat island effect that typically adds 1–2°C to minima, underpin the tight market split between 24°C and 25°C. Minor variations in cloud timing, wind speed, or any passing moisture could shift the exact low by 1°C, which explains the modest probabilities assigned to 23°C or 26°C. Updated JMA and global model runs expected within the next 24 hours will likely refine the outlook ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions