**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C minimum for Wellington on August 27, 2026, reflecting strong alignment in official forecasts.** New Zealand MetService and supporting models project an overnight low near 10°C under brisk northerly to northwesterly winds, with partly cloudy conditions and limited radiational cooling. This matches the market's near-100% implied probability on the 10°C outcome, as real-time observations and short-range guidance show temperatures stabilizing around that threshold after daytime highs near 13–15°C. Historical August climatology for Wellington supports typical overnight minima of 8–11°C, placing the current forecast squarely within normal bounds without extreme deviations. The primary driver remains the latest model consensus on steering flow and cloud cover, which limits further cooling. Realistic challenges include a sharper wind shift allowing clearer skies for enhanced nocturnal cooling or station-specific measurement variance at the official Wellington site, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of dropping to 9°C or below before midnight. Updated MetService briefings and any late-model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any market movement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月27日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
8月27日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
10°C 100.0%
5°C或以下 <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$1,845 交易量
$1,845 交易量
2026-08-27
5°C或以下
否
6°C
否
7°C
否
8°C
否
9°C
否
10°C
是
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C或以上
否
10°C 100.0%
5°C或以下 <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$1,845 交易量
$1,845 交易量
2026-08-27
5°C或以下
$193 交易量
否
6°C
$63 交易量
否
7°C
$94 交易量
否
8°C
$113 交易量
否
9°C
$97 交易量
否
10°C
$217 交易量
是
11°C
$223 交易量
否
12°C
$133 交易量
否
13°C
$43 交易量
否
14°C
$315 交易量
否
15°C或以上
$356 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C minimum for Wellington on August 27, 2026, reflecting strong alignment in official forecasts.** New Zealand MetService and supporting models project an overnight low near 10°C under brisk northerly to northwesterly winds, with partly cloudy conditions and limited radiational cooling. This matches the market's near-100% implied probability on the 10°C outcome, as real-time observations and short-range guidance show temperatures stabilizing around that threshold after daytime highs near 13–15°C. Historical August climatology for Wellington supports typical overnight minima of 8–11°C, placing the current forecast squarely within normal bounds without extreme deviations.
The primary driver remains the latest model consensus on steering flow and cloud cover, which limits further cooling. Realistic challenges include a sharper wind shift allowing clearer skies for enhanced nocturnal cooling or station-specific measurement variance at the official Wellington site, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of dropping to 9°C or below before midnight. Updated MetService briefings and any late-model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$1,845結束日期
2026-08-27市場開放時間
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C minimum for Wellington on August 27, 2026, reflecting strong alignment in official forecasts.** New Zealand MetService and supporting models project an overnight low near 10°C under brisk northerly to northwesterly winds, with partly cloudy conditions and limited radiational cooling. This matches the market's near-100% implied probability on the 10°C outcome, as real-time observations and short-range guidance show temperatures stabilizing around that threshold after daytime highs near 13–15°C. Historical August climatology for Wellington supports typical overnight minima of 8–11°C, placing the current forecast squarely within normal bounds without extreme deviations.
The primary driver remains the latest model consensus on steering flow and cloud cover, which limits further cooling. Realistic challenges include a sharper wind shift allowing clearer skies for enhanced nocturnal cooling or station-specific measurement variance at the official Wellington site, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of dropping to 9°C or below before midnight. Updated MetService briefings and any late-model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,845結束日期
2026-08-27市場開放時間
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C minimum for Wellington on August 27, 2026, reflecting strong alignment in official forecasts.** New Zealand MetService and supporting models project an overnight low near 10°C under brisk northerly to northwesterly winds, with partly cloudy conditions and limited radiational cooling. This matches the market's near-100% implied probability on the 10°C outcome, as real-time observations and short-range guidance show temperatures stabilizing around that threshold after daytime highs near 13–15°C. Historical August climatology for Wellington supports typical overnight minima of 8–11°C, placing the current forecast squarely within normal bounds without extreme deviations. The primary driver remains the latest model consensus on steering flow and cloud cover, which limits further cooling. Realistic challenges include a sharper wind shift allowing clearer skies for enhanced nocturnal cooling or station-specific measurement variance at the official Wellington site, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of dropping to 9°C or below before midnight. Updated MetService briefings and any late-model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any market movement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions