Astronomical monitoring by NASA and other agencies shows no known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton impact on a collision course with Earth in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly behind the “No” outcome at 84 percent. Historical records indicate such strikes occur roughly once every few thousand years, and current orbital surveys have ruled out any imminent threats through the end of the year. While undetected small asteroids could theoretically surprise observers, the absence of fresh alerts or trajectory updates in recent months has reinforced the low-probability assessment. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing radar tracking campaigns and any late-year discovery announcements, though none are currently expected to shift the market-implied odds materially.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$154,189 交易量
$154,189 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$154,189 交易量
$154,189 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Astronomical monitoring by NASA and other agencies shows no known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton impact on a collision course with Earth in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly behind the “No” outcome at 84 percent. Historical records indicate such strikes occur roughly once every few thousand years, and current orbital surveys have ruled out any imminent threats through the end of the year. While undetected small asteroids could theoretically surprise observers, the absence of fresh alerts or trajectory updates in recent months has reinforced the low-probability assessment. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing radar tracking campaigns and any late-year discovery announcements, though none are currently expected to shift the market-implied odds materially.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
交易量
$154,189結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Astronomical monitoring by NASA and other agencies shows no known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton impact on a collision course with Earth in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly behind the “No” outcome at 84 percent. Historical records indicate such strikes occur roughly once every few thousand years, and current orbital surveys have ruled out any imminent threats through the end of the year. While undetected small asteroids could theoretically surprise observers, the absence of fresh alerts or trajectory updates in recent months has reinforced the low-probability assessment. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing radar tracking campaigns and any late-year discovery announcements, though none are currently expected to shift the market-implied odds materially.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$154,189結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Astronomical monitoring by NASA and other agencies shows no known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton impact on a collision course with Earth in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly behind the “No” outcome at 84 percent. Historical records indicate such strikes occur roughly once every few thousand years, and current orbital surveys have ruled out any imminent threats through the end of the year. While undetected small asteroids could theoretically surprise observers, the absence of fresh alerts or trajectory updates in recent months has reinforced the low-probability assessment. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing radar tracking campaigns and any late-year discovery announcements, though none are currently expected to shift the market-implied odds materially.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions