Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, by a narrow 51.9% to 48.1% margin according to unofficial results from nearly all precincts. This outcome, confirmed by the Associated Press and multiple outlets shortly after polls closed, produced a roughly 3.8-percentage-point victory that aligns directly with the market’s heavy weighting toward McKinney finishing under 4%. The race featured a progressive challenge backed by organized labor and democratic socialist groups against an incumbent emphasizing federal funding secured during his tenure, with turnout and late-deciding Detroit-area voters cited as decisive factors in the slim result. Official certification remains pending, leaving limited room for minor vote adjustments that could shift the exact margin while preserving the under-4% bracket as the dominant trader consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於麥金尼少於4% 99.7%
麥金尼4–8% 11.8%
McKinney 16%+ 3.9%
Thanedar 少於4% <1%
$15,656 交易量
$15,656 交易量
2026-08-04
McKinney 16%+
4%
McKinney 12–16%
<1%
McKinney 8–12%
<1%
麥金尼4–8%
21%
麥金尼少於4%
80%
Thanedar 少於4%
1%
Thanedar 4-8%
<1%
麥金尼少於4% 99.7%
麥金尼4–8% 11.8%
McKinney 16%+ 3.9%
Thanedar 少於4% <1%
$15,656 交易量
$15,656 交易量
2026-08-04
McKinney 16%+
$3,999 交易量
4%
McKinney 12–16%
$2,811 交易量
<1%
McKinney 8–12%
$617 交易量
<1%
麥金尼4–8%
$708 交易量
21%
麥金尼少於4%
$2,777 交易量
80%
Thanedar 少於4%
$2,557 交易量
1%
Thanedar 4-8%
$740 交易量
<1%
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, by a narrow 51.9% to 48.1% margin according to unofficial results from nearly all precincts. This outcome, confirmed by the Associated Press and multiple outlets shortly after polls closed, produced a roughly 3.8-percentage-point victory that aligns directly with the market’s heavy weighting toward McKinney finishing under 4%. The race featured a progressive challenge backed by organized labor and democratic socialist groups against an incumbent emphasizing federal funding secured during his tenure, with turnout and late-deciding Detroit-area voters cited as decisive factors in the slim result. Official certification remains pending, leaving limited room for minor vote adjustments that could shift the exact margin while preserving the under-4% bracket as the dominant trader consensus.
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市場開放時間： Jul 27, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$15,656結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Jul 27, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, by a narrow 51.9% to 48.1% margin according to unofficial results from nearly all precincts. This outcome, confirmed by the Associated Press and multiple outlets shortly after polls closed, produced a roughly 3.8-percentage-point victory that aligns directly with the market’s heavy weighting toward McKinney finishing under 4%. The race featured a progressive challenge backed by organized labor and democratic socialist groups against an incumbent emphasizing federal funding secured during his tenure, with turnout and late-deciding Detroit-area voters cited as decisive factors in the slim result. Official certification remains pending, leaving limited room for minor vote adjustments that could shift the exact margin while preserving the under-4% bracket as the dominant trader consensus.
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$15,656結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Jul 27, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, by a narrow 51.9% to 48.1% margin according to unofficial results from nearly all precincts. This outcome, confirmed by the Associated Press and multiple outlets shortly after polls closed, produced a roughly 3.8-percentage-point victory that aligns directly with the market’s heavy weighting toward McKinney finishing under 4%. The race featured a progressive challenge backed by organized labor and democratic socialist groups against an incumbent emphasizing federal funding secured during his tenure, with turnout and late-deciding Detroit-area voters cited as decisive factors in the slim result. Official certification remains pending, leaving limited room for minor vote adjustments that could shift the exact margin while preserving the under-4% bracket as the dominant trader consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions