Mojtaba Khamenei’s reported injuries from the late-February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father have kept the new Supreme Leader out of public view since his March appointment by the Assembly of Experts. He has issued only written statements and appeared in one short undated video released by state media on August 10, which traders view as insufficient to resolve markets on a verifiable live or in-person appearance. Security concerns cited by officials, ongoing post-conflict sensitivities, and unconfirmed reports of healing facial and leg wounds continue to shape assessments of timing. Any scheduled official events, Friday prayers, or high-profile ceremonies in the coming months could serve as catalysts, while persistent absence would reinforce trader caution around near-term resolution dates.