**Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** She flipped the suburban Long Island seat (entirely within Hempstead town in Nassau County) in 2024 with 51.1% against the prior Republican incumbent and faces no Democratic primary opposition. The district carries a D+2 partisan lean, and forecasters rate it Lean or Likely Democratic. Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead Town Receiver of Taxes, won her June 23 primary decisively but enters the general as a lesser-known local official focused on property taxes and affordability. Trader consensus reflects Gillen’s incumbency edge, the district’s modest Democratic tilt, and limited signs of a major Republican surge in this swing suburban area, with few recent developments altering the positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨
87%
共和黨
15%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨
$1,549 交易量
87%
共和黨
$402 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** She flipped the suburban Long Island seat (entirely within Hempstead town in Nassau County) in 2024 with 51.1% against the prior Republican incumbent and faces no Democratic primary opposition. The district carries a D+2 partisan lean, and forecasters rate it Lean or Likely Democratic. Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead Town Receiver of Taxes, won her June 23 primary decisively but enters the general as a lesser-known local official focused on property taxes and affordability. Trader consensus reflects Gillen’s incumbency edge, the district’s modest Democratic tilt, and limited signs of a major Republican surge in this swing suburban area, with few recent developments altering the positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$1,950結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** She flipped the suburban Long Island seat (entirely within Hempstead town in Nassau County) in 2024 with 51.1% against the prior Republican incumbent and faces no Democratic primary opposition. The district carries a D+2 partisan lean, and forecasters rate it Lean or Likely Democratic. Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead Town Receiver of Taxes, won her June 23 primary decisively but enters the general as a lesser-known local official focused on property taxes and affordability. Trader consensus reflects Gillen’s incumbency edge, the district’s modest Democratic tilt, and limited signs of a major Republican surge in this swing suburban area, with few recent developments altering the positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,950結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** She flipped the suburban Long Island seat (entirely within Hempstead town in Nassau County) in 2024 with 51.1% against the prior Republican incumbent and faces no Democratic primary opposition. The district carries a D+2 partisan lean, and forecasters rate it Lean or Likely Democratic. Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead Town Receiver of Taxes, won her June 23 primary decisively but enters the general as a lesser-known local official focused on property taxes and affordability. Trader consensus reflects Gillen’s incumbency edge, the district’s modest Democratic tilt, and limited signs of a major Republican surge in this swing suburban area, with few recent developments altering the positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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