Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate resilience ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections, where United Russia is positioned for a decisive victory through established mechanisms of voter mobilization and opposition restrictions. Recent polling shows modest declines in approval ratings amid economic pressures and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, yet these have not translated into organized elite defections or military unrest. The Kremlin has maintained tight control over security services and public discourse, with limited tolerated criticism serving to channel grievances rather than challenge authority. Historical precedent, including the swift suppression of the 2023 Wagner mutiny, reinforces trader assessments that structural barriers to a coup attempt remain high through the remainder of 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6% 機率
$131,750 交易量
$131,750 交易量
2026-12-31
6% 機率
$131,750 交易量
$131,750 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate resilience ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections, where United Russia is positioned for a decisive victory through established mechanisms of voter mobilization and opposition restrictions. Recent polling shows modest declines in approval ratings amid economic pressures and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, yet these have not translated into organized elite defections or military unrest. The Kremlin has maintained tight control over security services and public discourse, with limited tolerated criticism serving to channel grievances rather than challenge authority. Historical precedent, including the swift suppression of the 2023 Wagner mutiny, reinforces trader assessments that structural barriers to a coup attempt remain high through the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
交易量
$131,750結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate resilience ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections, where United Russia is positioned for a decisive victory through established mechanisms of voter mobilization and opposition restrictions. Recent polling shows modest declines in approval ratings amid economic pressures and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, yet these have not translated into organized elite defections or military unrest. The Kremlin has maintained tight control over security services and public discourse, with limited tolerated criticism serving to channel grievances rather than challenge authority. Historical precedent, including the swift suppression of the 2023 Wagner mutiny, reinforces trader assessments that structural barriers to a coup attempt remain high through the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$131,750結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETRussia's political system under President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate resilience ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections, where United Russia is positioned for a decisive victory through established mechanisms of voter mobilization and opposition restrictions. Recent polling shows modest declines in approval ratings amid economic pressures and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, yet these have not translated into organized elite defections or military unrest. The Kremlin has maintained tight control over security services and public discourse, with limited tolerated criticism serving to channel grievances rather than challenge authority. Historical precedent, including the swift suppression of the 2023 Wagner mutiny, reinforces trader assessments that structural barriers to a coup attempt remain high through the remainder of 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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