Moonshot holds near-certain market-implied odds as the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by recent demonstrated agent capabilities, benchmark performance, and competitive positioning against larger labs. Traders appear to view its progress in autonomous task handling and model releases as sufficient to secure that ranking ahead of more established players. This consensus reflects capital-backed sentiment on recent technical milestones rather than guarantees, given the fast-moving nature of AI development. Potential challenges include last-minute releases or capability jumps from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could alter relative standings before resolution, or shifts in evaluation criteria for agent quality.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Moonshot 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$24,482 交易量
$24,482 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
No
OpenAI
No
Z.ai
No
SpaceXAI
No
Meta
No
Alibaba
No
No
Moonshot
Yes
DeepSeek
No
Xiaomi
No
MiniMax
No
Nvidia
No
ByteDance
No
Baidu
No
Amazon
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Microsoft
No
Moonshot 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$24,482 交易量
$24,482 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$1,177 交易量
No
OpenAI
$4,071 交易量
No
Z.ai
$2,233 交易量
No
SpaceXAI
$859 交易量
No
Meta
$504 交易量
No
Alibaba
$1,262 交易量
No
$462 交易量
No
Moonshot
$6,613 交易量
Yes
DeepSeek
$999 交易量
No
Xiaomi
$1,107 交易量
No
MiniMax
$868 交易量
No
Nvidia
$401 交易量
No
ByteDance
$465 交易量
No
Baidu
$699 交易量
No
Amazon
$477 交易量
No
Mistral
$1,322 交易量
No
Meituan
$580 交易量
No
Microsoft
$385 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot holds near-certain market-implied odds as the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by recent demonstrated agent capabilities, benchmark performance, and competitive positioning against larger labs. Traders appear to view its progress in autonomous task handling and model releases as sufficient to secure that ranking ahead of more established players. This consensus reflects capital-backed sentiment on recent technical milestones rather than guarantees, given the fast-moving nature of AI development. Potential challenges include last-minute releases or capability jumps from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could alter relative standings before resolution, or shifts in evaluation criteria for agent quality.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$24,482結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot holds near-certain market-implied odds as the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by recent demonstrated agent capabilities, benchmark performance, and competitive positioning against larger labs. Traders appear to view its progress in autonomous task handling and model releases as sufficient to secure that ranking ahead of more established players. This consensus reflects capital-backed sentiment on recent technical milestones rather than guarantees, given the fast-moving nature of AI development. Potential challenges include last-minute releases or capability jumps from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could alter relative standings before resolution, or shifts in evaluation criteria for agent quality.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$24,482結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Moonshot holds near-certain market-implied odds as the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by recent demonstrated agent capabilities, benchmark performance, and competitive positioning against larger labs. Traders appear to view its progress in autonomous task handling and model releases as sufficient to secure that ranking ahead of more established players. This consensus reflects capital-backed sentiment on recent technical milestones rather than guarantees, given the fast-moving nature of AI development. Potential challenges include last-minute releases or capability jumps from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could alter relative standings before resolution, or shifts in evaluation criteria for agent quality.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions