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icon for 美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？
世界·特朗普

美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？

icon for 美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？
世界·特朗普

美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？

1月 1, 2027

1月 1, 2027

是

5% 機率
Polymarket

$74,592 交易量

是

5% 機率
Polymarket

$74,592 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. US policy has long rejected recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea under the Welles Doctrine, which opposes legitimizing territorial gains by force, a stance reinforced by 2025 congressional bills prohibiting such action and recent August 2026 statements from officials including Keith Kellogg reaffirming non-recognition. Despite 2025 discussions of de facto acceptance in Ukraine peace talks under the Trump administration, no formal diplomatic shift has occurred amid ongoing congressional constraints and allied opposition. Traders' 95% consensus on "No" reflects this entrenched position and the short window remaining before 2027, though rapid negotiation breakthroughs or executive action could still alter the outcome before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.

Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$74,592
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. US policy has long rejected recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea under the Welles Doctrine, which opposes legitimizing territorial gains by force, a stance reinforced by 2025 congressional bills prohibiting such action and recent August 2026 statements from officials including Keith Kellogg reaffirming non-recognition. Despite 2025 discussions of de facto acceptance in Ukraine peace talks under the Trump administration, no formal diplomatic shift has occurred amid ongoing congressional constraints and allied opposition. Traders' 95% consensus on "No" reflects this entrenched position and the short window remaining before 2027, though rapid negotiation breakthroughs or executive action could still alter the outcome before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.

Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$74,592
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國會在2027年前承認俄羅斯對克里米亞的主權嗎？" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？" has generated $74.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？" is "美國會在2027年前承認俄羅斯對克里米亞的主權嗎？" at just 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.