As of mid-August 2026, only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have formed in the Atlantic, leaving Cristobal as the next name in the official NHC rotation and thus the market leader at 32.5% implied probability. Traders favor Cristobal and Dolly because the season’s climatological peak is approaching, when warmer sea-surface temperatures and reduced wind shear often allow early-to-mid list storms to reach sustained 74 mph winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale before later systems develop. Model consensus and historical analogs show that an active August–September period could produce the season’s first hurricane within the next one or two named storms, while a continued quiet pattern would push odds toward subsequent names. NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook and NHC forecast discussions in coming weeks will provide key data on steering patterns and intensification potential that could shift these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Cristobal 32%
Dolly 11%
Edouard 9%
Fay 6%
最新
最新
2026-12-01
Cristobal
32%
Dolly
26%
Edouard
9%
Fay
6%
Gonzalo
5%
哈娜
5%
伊薩亞斯
5%
約瑟芬
5%
Kyle
4%
Leah
3%
Marco
5%
娜娜
5%
奧馬爾
5%
Paulette
5%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
4%
Wilfred
5%
其他
4%
Cristobal 32%
Dolly 11%
Edouard 9%
Fay 6%
最新
最新
2026-12-01
Cristobal
$269 交易量
32%
Dolly
$86 交易量
26%
Edouard
$660 交易量
9%
Fay
$93 交易量
6%
Gonzalo
$72 交易量
5%
哈娜
$98 交易量
5%
伊薩亞斯
$88 交易量
5%
約瑟芬
$55 交易量
5%
Kyle
$94 交易量
4%
Leah
$59 交易量
3%
Marco
$111 交易量
5%
娜娜
$51 交易量
5%
奧馬爾
$67 交易量
5%
Paulette
$71 交易量
5%
Rene
$63 交易量
5%
Sally
$131 交易量
3%
Teddy
$63 交易量
5%
Vicky
$90 交易量
4%
Wilfred
$118 交易量
5%
其他
$63 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. As of mid-August 2026, only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have formed in the Atlantic, leaving Cristobal as the next name in the official NHC rotation and thus the market leader at 32.5% implied probability. Traders favor Cristobal and Dolly because the season’s climatological peak is approaching, when warmer sea-surface temperatures and reduced wind shear often allow early-to-mid list storms to reach sustained 74 mph winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale before later systems develop. Model consensus and historical analogs show that an active August–September period could produce the season’s first hurricane within the next one or two named storms, while a continued quiet pattern would push odds toward subsequent names. NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook and NHC forecast discussions in coming weeks will provide key data on steering patterns and intensification potential that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
交易量
$2,405結束日期
2026-12-02市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. As of mid-August 2026, only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have formed in the Atlantic, leaving Cristobal as the next name in the official NHC rotation and thus the market leader at 32.5% implied probability. Traders favor Cristobal and Dolly because the season’s climatological peak is approaching, when warmer sea-surface temperatures and reduced wind shear often allow early-to-mid list storms to reach sustained 74 mph winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale before later systems develop. Model consensus and historical analogs show that an active August–September period could produce the season’s first hurricane within the next one or two named storms, while a continued quiet pattern would push odds toward subsequent names. NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook and NHC forecast discussions in coming weeks will provide key data on steering patterns and intensification potential that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
交易量
$2,405結束日期
2026-12-02市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...As of mid-August 2026, only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have formed in the Atlantic, leaving Cristobal as the next name in the official NHC rotation and thus the market leader at 32.5% implied probability. Traders favor Cristobal and Dolly because the season’s climatological peak is approaching, when warmer sea-surface temperatures and reduced wind shear often allow early-to-mid list storms to reach sustained 74 mph winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale before later systems develop. Model consensus and historical analogs show that an active August–September period could produce the season’s first hurricane within the next one or two named storms, while a continued quiet pattern would push odds toward subsequent names. NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook and NHC forecast discussions in coming weeks will provide key data on steering patterns and intensification potential that could shift these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions