Traders assign Anthropic an 89.5% implied probability of holding the top-ranked AI model by end of May, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated leading performance in style control benchmarks and independent evaluations. This consensus reflects Anthropic's competitive edge over rivals like Google at 6.5% and OpenAI at 1.1%, where recent updates have not yet shifted measurable capabilities enough to close the gap. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on verifiable leaderboard criteria, acknowledging that product timelines and third-party assessments can still introduce last-minute shifts before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$626,563 交易量
$626,563 交易量

Anthropic
90%

7%

OpenAI
1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Baidu
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$626,563 交易量
$626,563 交易量

Anthropic
90%

7%

OpenAI
1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Baidu
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Anthropic an 89.5% implied probability of holding the top-ranked AI model by end of May, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated leading performance in style control benchmarks and independent evaluations. This consensus reflects Anthropic's competitive edge over rivals like Google at 6.5% and OpenAI at 1.1%, where recent updates have not yet shifted measurable capabilities enough to close the gap. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on verifiable leaderboard criteria, acknowledging that product timelines and third-party assessments can still introduce last-minute shifts before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions