Traders have positioned Anthropic with an 89.5% implied probability of leading the AI model rankings by end of May, reflecting its recent gains in benchmark performance and demonstrated capabilities across complex reasoning and creative tasks. Iterative refinements to its large language models have strengthened competitive positioning against rivals, outpacing Google's Gemini updates at 9.5% and OpenAI's more modest 1.1% share amid slower progress on key metrics. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on factors like model reliability and feature depth, though tight timelines before resolution leave room for last-minute releases or benchmark shifts to alter the current hierarchy.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 90%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$608,756 交易量
$608,756 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
90%
10%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$608,756 交易量
$608,756 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$58,979 交易量
90%
$65,440 交易量
10%
OpenAI
$37,841 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$61,147 交易量
<1%
Meta
$41,764 交易量
<1%
xAI
$52,617 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$29,953 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have positioned Anthropic with an 89.5% implied probability of leading the AI model rankings by end of May, reflecting its recent gains in benchmark performance and demonstrated capabilities across complex reasoning and creative tasks. Iterative refinements to its large language models have strengthened competitive positioning against rivals, outpacing Google's Gemini updates at 9.5% and OpenAI's more modest 1.1% share amid slower progress on key metrics. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on factors like model reliability and feature depth, though tight timelines before resolution leave room for last-minute releases or benchmark shifts to alter the current hierarchy.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$608,756結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have positioned Anthropic with an 89.5% implied probability of leading the AI model rankings by end of May, reflecting its recent gains in benchmark performance and demonstrated capabilities across complex reasoning and creative tasks. Iterative refinements to its large language models have strengthened competitive positioning against rivals, outpacing Google's Gemini updates at 9.5% and OpenAI's more modest 1.1% share amid slower progress on key metrics. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on factors like model reliability and feature depth, though tight timelines before resolution leave room for last-minute releases or benchmark shifts to alter the current hierarchy.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$608,756結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have positioned Anthropic with an 89.5% implied probability of leading the AI model rankings by end of May, reflecting its recent gains in benchmark performance and demonstrated capabilities across complex reasoning and creative tasks. Iterative refinements to its large language models have strengthened competitive positioning against rivals, outpacing Google's Gemini updates at 9.5% and OpenAI's more modest 1.1% share amid slower progress on key metrics. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on factors like model reliability and feature depth, though tight timelines before resolution leave room for last-minute releases or benchmark shifts to alter the current hierarchy.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions