Heightened US-Iran tensions and recent FBI counterintelligence actions, including a May 2026 reward announcement tied to an existing espionage case, have created a closely contested trader consensus around the 52% implied probability for a new charge by May 31. Ongoing diplomatic engagement between the administrations adds pressure against public indictments that could disrupt negotiations, while historical patterns of short-notice unsealing in national security matters keep the possibility of an imminent federal or state action viable. Recent arrests involving sanctions violations or arms brokering on Iran's behalf fall short of qualifying as agent-directed covert activity, leaving room for either a last-minute development or continued restraint to determine the outcome in the narrow remaining window.