The Islamic Republic of Iran has maintained continuity after the 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and subsequent ceasefire agreement, which explicitly avoided regime change and drew public U.S. statements ruling out support for installing Reza Pahlavi. The regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and preserved its core institutions despite leadership losses and infrastructure damage. Pahlavi, based in exile, positioned himself as a transitional figure emphasizing referendums and democratic processes rather than immediate personal rule, yet his campaign encountered donor skepticism, opposition fragmentation, and limited verified domestic mobilization. These factors underpin trader consensus that he will not assume leadership by year-end, with realistic shifts possible only through unforeseen internal upheaval or renewed external escalation before December.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$11,706,682 交易量
$11,706,682 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 機率
$11,706,682 交易量
$11,706,682 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has maintained continuity after the 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and subsequent ceasefire agreement, which explicitly avoided regime change and drew public U.S. statements ruling out support for installing Reza Pahlavi. The regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and preserved its core institutions despite leadership losses and infrastructure damage. Pahlavi, based in exile, positioned himself as a transitional figure emphasizing referendums and democratic processes rather than immediate personal rule, yet his campaign encountered donor skepticism, opposition fragmentation, and limited verified domestic mobilization. These factors underpin trader consensus that he will not assume leadership by year-end, with realistic shifts possible only through unforeseen internal upheaval or renewed external escalation before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
交易量
$11,706,682結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has maintained continuity after the 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and subsequent ceasefire agreement, which explicitly avoided regime change and drew public U.S. statements ruling out support for installing Reza Pahlavi. The regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and preserved its core institutions despite leadership losses and infrastructure damage. Pahlavi, based in exile, positioned himself as a transitional figure emphasizing referendums and democratic processes rather than immediate personal rule, yet his campaign encountered donor skepticism, opposition fragmentation, and limited verified domestic mobilization. These factors underpin trader consensus that he will not assume leadership by year-end, with realistic shifts possible only through unforeseen internal upheaval or renewed external escalation before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$11,706,682結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic of Iran has maintained continuity after the 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and subsequent ceasefire agreement, which explicitly avoided regime change and drew public U.S. statements ruling out support for installing Reza Pahlavi. The regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and preserved its core institutions despite leadership losses and infrastructure damage. Pahlavi, based in exile, positioned himself as a transitional figure emphasizing referendums and democratic processes rather than immediate personal rule, yet his campaign encountered donor skepticism, opposition fragmentation, and limited verified domestic mobilization. These factors underpin trader consensus that he will not assume leadership by year-end, with realistic shifts possible only through unforeseen internal upheaval or renewed external escalation before December.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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