Scientific monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies shows no known near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst or impact in 2026, with Sentry risk assessments listing only negligible probabilities below 0.004 percent for any qualifying bodies. Historical fireball and infrasound records indicate such events occur roughly once every two to five years on average, driven by undetected meter-scale asteroids whose entry trajectories remain unpredictable until atmospheric detection. A notable early-2026 uptick in witnessed bolides, including one over Ohio releasing just 0.25 kt, has not approached the 5 kt threshold, reinforcing the current 64 percent market-implied probability for “No.” Ongoing satellite and ground-based surveillance through year-end will continue to refine these odds as new orbital data emerge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$300,653 交易量
$300,653 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$300,653 交易量
$300,653 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Scientific monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies shows no known near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst or impact in 2026, with Sentry risk assessments listing only negligible probabilities below 0.004 percent for any qualifying bodies. Historical fireball and infrasound records indicate such events occur roughly once every two to five years on average, driven by undetected meter-scale asteroids whose entry trajectories remain unpredictable until atmospheric detection. A notable early-2026 uptick in witnessed bolides, including one over Ohio releasing just 0.25 kt, has not approached the 5 kt threshold, reinforcing the current 64 percent market-implied probability for “No.” Ongoing satellite and ground-based surveillance through year-end will continue to refine these odds as new orbital data emerge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$300,653结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Scientific monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies shows no known near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst or impact in 2026, with Sentry risk assessments listing only negligible probabilities below 0.004 percent for any qualifying bodies. Historical fireball and infrasound records indicate such events occur roughly once every two to five years on average, driven by undetected meter-scale asteroids whose entry trajectories remain unpredictable until atmospheric detection. A notable early-2026 uptick in witnessed bolides, including one over Ohio releasing just 0.25 kt, has not approached the 5 kt threshold, reinforcing the current 64 percent market-implied probability for “No.” Ongoing satellite and ground-based surveillance through year-end will continue to refine these odds as new orbital data emerge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$300,653结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Scientific monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies shows no known near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst or impact in 2026, with Sentry risk assessments listing only negligible probabilities below 0.004 percent for any qualifying bodies. Historical fireball and infrasound records indicate such events occur roughly once every two to five years on average, driven by undetected meter-scale asteroids whose entry trajectories remain unpredictable until atmospheric detection. A notable early-2026 uptick in witnessed bolides, including one over Ohio releasing just 0.25 kt, has not approached the 5 kt threshold, reinforcing the current 64 percent market-implied probability for “No.” Ongoing satellite and ground-based surveillance through year-end will continue to refine these odds as new orbital data emerge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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