**No at 73% reflects historical bolide frequency and current monitoring data.** NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and CTBTO infrasound networks record multi-kiloton airbursts only once every few years on average, placing the odds of a ≥5 kt natural meteoroid event in any single calendar year well below 50%. With roughly seven months of 2026 elapsed and no qualifying impact reported, trader consensus aligns with base rates rather than any specific near-term threat. Ongoing close approaches by small NEAs (mostly under 50 m) continue without predicted strikes, while atmospheric shielding reliably disrupts objects too small to reach the 5 kt threshold. Resolution hinges on the final 2026 tally in the JPL Fireball repository; absent an undetected object or revised energy estimate, the market-implied probability favors no qualifying event.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
27% 概率
$312,416 交易量
$312,416 交易量
2026-12-30
是
27% 概率
$312,416 交易量
$312,416 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73% reflects historical bolide frequency and current monitoring data.** NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and CTBTO infrasound networks record multi-kiloton airbursts only once every few years on average, placing the odds of a ≥5 kt natural meteoroid event in any single calendar year well below 50%. With roughly seven months of 2026 elapsed and no qualifying impact reported, trader consensus aligns with base rates rather than any specific near-term threat. Ongoing close approaches by small NEAs (mostly under 50 m) continue without predicted strikes, while atmospheric shielding reliably disrupts objects too small to reach the 5 kt threshold. Resolution hinges on the final 2026 tally in the JPL Fireball repository; absent an undetected object or revised energy estimate, the market-implied probability favors no qualifying event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$312,416结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73% reflects historical bolide frequency and current monitoring data.** NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and CTBTO infrasound networks record multi-kiloton airbursts only once every few years on average, placing the odds of a ≥5 kt natural meteoroid event in any single calendar year well below 50%. With roughly seven months of 2026 elapsed and no qualifying impact reported, trader consensus aligns with base rates rather than any specific near-term threat. Ongoing close approaches by small NEAs (mostly under 50 m) continue without predicted strikes, while atmospheric shielding reliably disrupts objects too small to reach the 5 kt threshold. Resolution hinges on the final 2026 tally in the JPL Fireball repository; absent an undetected object or revised energy estimate, the market-implied probability favors no qualifying event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$312,416结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 73% reflects historical bolide frequency and current monitoring data.** NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and CTBTO infrasound networks record multi-kiloton airbursts only once every few years on average, placing the odds of a ≥5 kt natural meteoroid event in any single calendar year well below 50%. With roughly seven months of 2026 elapsed and no qualifying impact reported, trader consensus aligns with base rates rather than any specific near-term threat. Ongoing close approaches by small NEAs (mostly under 50 m) continue without predicted strikes, while atmospheric shielding reliably disrupts objects too small to reach the 5 kt threshold. Resolution hinges on the final 2026 tally in the JPL Fireball repository; absent an undetected object or revised energy estimate, the market-implied probability favors no qualifying event.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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