Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.3% implied probability to at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market with low unemployment. Recent FOMC communications and October 2026 CPI data have highlighted sticky services prices, leading markets to price in a potential policy reversal from the earlier easing path as the Fed funds rate remains restrictive. Treasury yields and forward curves embed expectations that strong growth could sustain upward pressure on rates through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include November employment reports and the December FOMC meeting. While this consensus is robust, tail risks such as a sharp slowdown or unexpected disinflation could still shift the outcome.