Ongoing U.S. naval blockade and Iranian restrictions have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels since February 2026. Daily crossings have fallen to single digits or low teens amid mine-clearance operations, vessel interceptions, and mutual threats, with recent data showing only isolated passages by approved or redirected ships. Traders price a sustained low average for late May because these enforcement measures and safety risks remain in place, with any increase dependent on de-escalation signals or policy shifts that have not yet materialized. Historical patterns of chokepoint disruptions reinforce expectations that traffic will stay minimal absent verified diplomatic progress before month-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.4%
60+ 3.1%
$320,455 交易量
$320,455 交易量
2026-05-31
0-10
87%
10-20
6%
20-40
3%
40-60
2%
60+
3%
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.4%
60+ 3.1%
$320,455 交易量
$320,455 交易量
2026-05-31
0-10
$170,840 交易量
87%
10-20
$42,858 交易量
6%
20-40
$34,061 交易量
3%
40-60
$27,481 交易量
2%
60+
$45,298 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S. naval blockade and Iranian restrictions have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels since February 2026. Daily crossings have fallen to single digits or low teens amid mine-clearance operations, vessel interceptions, and mutual threats, with recent data showing only isolated passages by approved or redirected ships. Traders price a sustained low average for late May because these enforcement measures and safety risks remain in place, with any increase dependent on de-escalation signals or policy shifts that have not yet materialized. Historical patterns of chokepoint disruptions reinforce expectations that traffic will stay minimal absent verified diplomatic progress before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
交易量
$320,455结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S. naval blockade and Iranian restrictions have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels since February 2026. Daily crossings have fallen to single digits or low teens amid mine-clearance operations, vessel interceptions, and mutual threats, with recent data showing only isolated passages by approved or redirected ships. Traders price a sustained low average for late May because these enforcement measures and safety risks remain in place, with any increase dependent on de-escalation signals or policy shifts that have not yet materialized. Historical patterns of chokepoint disruptions reinforce expectations that traffic will stay minimal absent verified diplomatic progress before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$320,455结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S. naval blockade and Iranian restrictions have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels since February 2026. Daily crossings have fallen to single digits or low teens amid mine-clearance operations, vessel interceptions, and mutual threats, with recent data showing only isolated passages by approved or redirected ships. Traders price a sustained low average for late May because these enforcement measures and safety risks remain in place, with any increase dependent on de-escalation signals or policy shifts that have not yet materialized. Historical patterns of chokepoint disruptions reinforce expectations that traffic will stay minimal absent verified diplomatic progress before month-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题