Ongoing military tensions in the Iran conflict, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily traffic remaining at single-digit levels or lower in early May amid Iranian restrictions, reported attacks, and U.S. naval escort efforts such as Project Freedom. Shipping data from sources including Lloyd’s List and Kpler show transits often below 10 percent of pre-conflict averages of roughly 100 vessels per day, driven by safety concerns, potential mining, and selective access policies favoring certain flagged vessels. Trader consensus reflected in the 86.5 percent probability for an average of 0-10 ships by month-end aligns with these sustained disruptions, though any verified de-escalation or successful corridor expansion before the end of May could alter outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.3%
60+ 3.1%
$320,580 交易量
$320,580 交易量
2026-05-31
0-10
87%
10-20
6%
20-40
3%
40-60
2%
60+
3%
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.3%
60+ 3.1%
$320,580 交易量
$320,580 交易量
2026-05-31
0-10
$171,041 交易量
87%
10-20
$43,505 交易量
6%
20-40
$34,199 交易量
3%
40-60
$27,619 交易量
2%
60+
$45,476 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military tensions in the Iran conflict, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily traffic remaining at single-digit levels or lower in early May amid Iranian restrictions, reported attacks, and U.S. naval escort efforts such as Project Freedom. Shipping data from sources including Lloyd’s List and Kpler show transits often below 10 percent of pre-conflict averages of roughly 100 vessels per day, driven by safety concerns, potential mining, and selective access policies favoring certain flagged vessels. Trader consensus reflected in the 86.5 percent probability for an average of 0-10 ships by month-end aligns with these sustained disruptions, though any verified de-escalation or successful corridor expansion before the end of May could alter outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
交易量
$320,580结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military tensions in the Iran conflict, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily traffic remaining at single-digit levels or lower in early May amid Iranian restrictions, reported attacks, and U.S. naval escort efforts such as Project Freedom. Shipping data from sources including Lloyd’s List and Kpler show transits often below 10 percent of pre-conflict averages of roughly 100 vessels per day, driven by safety concerns, potential mining, and selective access policies favoring certain flagged vessels. Trader consensus reflected in the 86.5 percent probability for an average of 0-10 ships by month-end aligns with these sustained disruptions, though any verified de-escalation or successful corridor expansion before the end of May could alter outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$320,580结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing military tensions in the Iran conflict, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily traffic remaining at single-digit levels or lower in early May amid Iranian restrictions, reported attacks, and U.S. naval escort efforts such as Project Freedom. Shipping data from sources including Lloyd’s List and Kpler show transits often below 10 percent of pre-conflict averages of roughly 100 vessels per day, driven by safety concerns, potential mining, and selective access policies favoring certain flagged vessels. Trader consensus reflected in the 86.5 percent probability for an average of 0-10 ships by month-end aligns with these sustained disruptions, though any verified de-escalation or successful corridor expansion before the end of May could alter outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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