Recent polls place incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38–40% in first-round voting intentions for Brazil’s October 4 election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37% and remaining support fragmented among smaller candidates. This narrow gap, confirmed across Quaest, Ideia, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-May, sustains trader focus on a sub-5% or 5–10% Lula victory while keeping open the slim chance of a Flávio-led narrow win. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval and unified opposition backing behind the Liberal Party candidate after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have kept the contest competitive. The fragmented field and historical first-round volatility reinforce expectations of a tight margin rather than a decisive lead for either frontrunner.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 31%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 25%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 18%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15% 8.2%
$231,656 交易量
$231,656 交易量
2026-10-04
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
3%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
8%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
18%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
37%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
2%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
6%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
25%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
5%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
1%
其他
13%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 31%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 25%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 18%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15% 8.2%
$231,656 交易量
$231,656 交易量
2026-10-04
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
$4,601 交易量
3%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
$2,627 交易量
8%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
$6,808 交易量
18%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
$2,923 交易量
37%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
$1,984 交易量
2%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
$2,309 交易量
6%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
$4,026 交易量
25%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
$200,633 交易量
5%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
$1,712 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
$1,774 交易量
1%
其他
$2,258 交易量
13%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls place incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38–40% in first-round voting intentions for Brazil’s October 4 election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37% and remaining support fragmented among smaller candidates. This narrow gap, confirmed across Quaest, Ideia, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-May, sustains trader focus on a sub-5% or 5–10% Lula victory while keeping open the slim chance of a Flávio-led narrow win. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval and unified opposition backing behind the Liberal Party candidate after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have kept the contest competitive. The fragmented field and historical first-round volatility reinforce expectations of a tight margin rather than a decisive lead for either frontrunner.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$231,656结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls place incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38–40% in first-round voting intentions for Brazil’s October 4 election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37% and remaining support fragmented among smaller candidates. This narrow gap, confirmed across Quaest, Ideia, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-May, sustains trader focus on a sub-5% or 5–10% Lula victory while keeping open the slim chance of a Flávio-led narrow win. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval and unified opposition backing behind the Liberal Party candidate after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have kept the contest competitive. The fragmented field and historical first-round volatility reinforce expectations of a tight margin rather than a decisive lead for either frontrunner.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$231,656结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls place incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38–40% in first-round voting intentions for Brazil’s October 4 election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37% and remaining support fragmented among smaller candidates. This narrow gap, confirmed across Quaest, Ideia, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-May, sustains trader focus on a sub-5% or 5–10% Lula victory while keeping open the slim chance of a Flávio-led narrow win. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval and unified opposition backing behind the Liberal Party candidate after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have kept the contest competitive. The fragmented field and historical first-round volatility reinforce expectations of a tight margin rather than a decisive lead for either frontrunner.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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