In the Charlesbourg riding for Quebec’s October 5, 2026 National Assembly election, the race remains tightly contested among Coalition avenir Québec candidate Marie-Josée Morency, Parti Québécois candidate Gabriel Coulombe, and Parti conservateur du Québec candidate Éloïse Coulombe. The departure of longtime CAQ incumbent Jonatan Julien has opened the seat in a region where provincial polling shows PCQ support running strong alongside PQ and CAQ. Local factors include Morency’s business and chamber-of-commerce experience, Coulombe’s (PQ) deep community roots and economic expertise, and Éloïse Coulombe’s focus on youth and housing issues. Vote fragmentation across five parties, combined with shifting regional momentum in the Capitale-Nationale, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even money. Further separation could emerge from candidate visibility in the final campaign weeks, targeted local canvassing, or broader swings in Quebec City-area sentiment ahead of election day.