The 2026 Quebec general election in Vanier-Les Rivières features a tight three-way contest driven by provincial trends and local candidate profiles. Incumbent CAQ MNA Mario Asselin is not seeking re-election, leaving Françoise Faverjon-Fortin to defend the seat against PQ candidate Stéphanie Martin, a longtime municipal affairs journalist, and PCQ nominee Patrick Paquet, a former Quebec City councillor with strong local recognition. Aggregators show the parties clustered within a few points, reflecting broader erosion of CAQ support in the Capitale-Nationale region alongside gains for both the PQ and PCQ. The race remains fluid ahead of the October 5 vote, with separation likely to hinge on turnout among conservative-leaning voters, visibility of the candidates during the campaign, and any late shifts in provincial momentum.