2028年民主党总统候选人

2028年民主党总统候选人 — 讨论

siick · 2025-07-11T18:41:17.827Z

关于2028年民主党总统候选人的讨论。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享见解和预测。

分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 20.4%

加文·纽瑟姆 16.8%

乔恩·奥索夫 14.8%

分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 7.4%

$1,258,881,046 交易量

2028-11-07

赚 3.25% 收益

分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯

$14,624,603 交易量

20%

加文·纽瑟姆

$26,774,197 交易量

17%

乔恩·奥索夫

$12,612,602 交易量

15%

分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯

$12,959,013 交易量

皮特·布蒂吉格

$11,813,742 交易量

乔什·沙皮罗

$9,496,917 交易量

马克·凯利

$17,240,574 交易量

拉姆·伊曼纽尔

$14,479,956 交易量

安迪·贝希尔

$12,980,706 交易量

Ro Khanna

$11,185,497 交易量

詹姆斯·塔拉里科

$10,510,926 交易量

分组条目标题：Wes Moore

$17,515,843 交易量

J.B. Pritzker

$15,383,821 交易量

乔恩·斯图尔特

$24,606,891 交易量

格雷琴·惠特默

$11,953,027 交易量

道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊

$12,400,122 交易量

Raphael Warnock

$32,072,095 交易量

米歇尔·奥巴马

$26,133,436 交易量

科里·布克

$25,620,377 交易量

伯尼·桑德斯

$52,667,888 交易量

马克·库班

$22,800,988 交易量

亨特·拜登

$44,178,942 交易量

切尔西·克林顿

$50,183,211 交易量

<1%

斯蒂芬·A·史密斯

$21,643,706 交易量

<1%

乔治·克洛尼

$42,938,499 交易量

<1%

Zohran Mamdani

$38,623,214 交易量

<1%

约翰·费特曼

$24,386,678 交易量

<1%

克里斯·墨菲

$17,146,176 交易量

<1%

罗伊·库珀

$31,393,148 交易量

<1%

奥普拉·温弗瑞

$54,283,679 交易量

<1%

吉娜·雷蒙多

$35,603,541 交易量

<1%

巴拉克·奥巴马

$33,885,046 交易量

<1%

分组项标题：Liz Cheney

$38,379,732 交易量

<1%

贝托·奥罗克

$42,698,082 交易量

<1%

鲁本·加列戈

$8,373,865 交易量

<1%

分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯

$27,205,671 交易量

<1%

勒布朗·詹姆斯

$43,848,144 交易量

<1%

分组项标题：MrBeast

$40,910,854 交易量

<1%

Jasmine Crockett

$36,377,434 交易量

<1%

格雷厄姆·普拉特纳

$8,008,803 交易量

<1%

希拉里·克林顿

$43,593,489 交易量

<1%

埃莉莎·斯洛特金

$933,610 交易量

<1%

阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格

$229,232 交易量

<1%

亚当·希夫

$144,629 交易量

<1%

乔什·斯坦因

$991,312 交易量

<1%

亚历克斯·帕迪利亚

$223,025 交易量

<1%

蒂姆·沃尔茨

$43,004,109 交易量

<1%

杨安德鲁

$48,638,651 交易量

<1%

分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊

$42,758,307 交易量

<1%

菲尔·墨菲

$42,227,384 交易量

<1%

哈基姆·杰弗里斯

$235,683 交易量

<1%

分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 20.4%

加文·纽瑟姆 16.8%

乔恩·奥索夫 14.8%

分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 7.4%

$1,258,881,046 交易量

2028-11-07

赚 3.25% 收益

分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯

$14,624,603 交易量

20%

加文·纽瑟姆

$26,774,197 交易量

17%

乔恩·奥索夫

$12,612,602 交易量

15%

分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯

$12,959,013 交易量

皮特·布蒂吉格

$11,813,742 交易量

乔什·沙皮罗

$9,496,917 交易量

马克·凯利

$17,240,574 交易量

拉姆·伊曼纽尔

$14,479,956 交易量

安迪·贝希尔

$12,980,706 交易量

Ro Khanna

$11,185,497 交易量

詹姆斯·塔拉里科

$10,510,926 交易量

分组条目标题：Wes Moore

$17,515,843 交易量

J.B. Pritzker

$15,383,821 交易量

乔恩·斯图尔特

$24,606,891 交易量

格雷琴·惠特默

$11,953,027 交易量

道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊

$12,400,122 交易量

Raphael Warnock

$32,072,095 交易量

米歇尔·奥巴马

$26,133,436 交易量

科里·布克

$25,620,377 交易量

伯尼·桑德斯

$52,667,888 交易量

马克·库班

$22,800,988 交易量

亨特·拜登

$44,178,942 交易量

切尔西·克林顿

$50,183,211 交易量

<1%

斯蒂芬·A·史密斯

$21,643,706 交易量

<1%

乔治·克洛尼

$42,938,499 交易量

<1%

Zohran Mamdani

$38,623,214 交易量

<1%

约翰·费特曼

$24,386,678 交易量

<1%

克里斯·墨菲

$17,146,176 交易量

<1%

罗伊·库珀

$31,393,148 交易量

<1%

奥普拉·温弗瑞

$54,283,679 交易量

<1%

吉娜·雷蒙多

$35,603,541 交易量

<1%

巴拉克·奥巴马

$33,885,046 交易量

<1%

分组项标题：Liz Cheney

$38,379,732 交易量

<1%

贝托·奥罗克

$42,698,082 交易量

<1%

鲁本·加列戈

$8,373,865 交易量

<1%

分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯

$27,205,671 交易量

<1%

勒布朗·詹姆斯

$43,848,144 交易量

<1%

分组项标题：MrBeast

$40,910,854 交易量

<1%

Jasmine Crockett

$36,377,434 交易量

<1%

格雷厄姆·普拉特纳

$8,008,803 交易量

<1%

希拉里·克林顿

$43,593,489 交易量

<1%

埃莉莎·斯洛特金

$933,610 交易量

<1%

阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格

$229,232 交易量

<1%

亚当·希夫

$144,629 交易量

<1%

乔什·斯坦因

$991,312 交易量

<1%

亚历克斯·帕迪利亚

$223,025 交易量

<1%

蒂姆·沃尔茨

$43,004,109 交易量

<1%

杨安德鲁

$48,638,651 交易量

<1%

分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊

$42,758,307 交易量

<1%

菲尔·墨菲

$42,227,384 交易量

<1%

哈基姆·杰弗里斯

$235,683 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

The closely matched top probabilities in this prediction market reflect an open 2028 Democratic field more than two years before primaries, with no candidates yet declared and trader consensus assigning roughly comparable value to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s strength among progressives and younger voters, Gavin Newsom’s statewide visibility and opposition positioning as California governor, and Jon Ossoff’s profile as a senator from the battleground state of Georgia. Recent DNC approval of a 2028 primary calendar starting with South Carolina on January 22, followed by Nevada and other diverse states, rewards early outreach to key constituencies and has contributed to volatility in early positioning. Kamala Harris and other established figures trail amid questions over coalition strength and electability. Separation could emerge from fundraising hauls, Senate or gubernatorial midterm results, formal endorsements, or shifts in national polling that clarify ideological or regional advantages.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于 2026年8月17日 UTC 04:31

Aug 16 2026

Gavin Newsom’s odds decline amid rising competition in 2028 Democratic nomination race

Gavin Newsom dips to 16%4%

Gavin Newsom’s market odds declined to 16% as other candidates like Ocasio-Cortez and Ossoff gained ground, reflecting a more competitive and fragmented Democratic primary field.

Aug 13 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signals Democratic shift away from 'woke' politics

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 19%5%

Ocasio-Cortez publicly reflected on the 'woke' era, signaling a Democratic Party shift away from extreme rhetoric, which influenced her market price by suggesting a more moderate positioning for 2028.

Aug 9 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces she is freezing her eggs while weighing 2028 presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 21%6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly shared her decision to freeze her eggs as she contemplates her next political moves, including a potential 2028 presidential campaign. This personal announcement was linked to her advocacy on reproductive rights and increased her visibility as a candidate.

Aug 9 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces freezing eggs amid 2028 run considerations

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 22%7%

On August 9, 2026, Ocasio-Cortez publicly announced she was freezing her eggs while weighing a potential 2028 presidential or Senate run. This personal and political announcement increased her visibility and market odds significantly, pushing her price from around 15% to 22%.

Aug 1 2026

Kamala Harris calls for major reforms including Supreme Court expansion ahead of possible 2028 run

Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%

Harris publicly endorsed progressive policies such as expanding the Supreme Court and abolishing the Electoral College, signaling a shift to a more left-leaning platform as she weighs a 2028 presidential campaign. Despite this, her market odds remained relatively flat.

Jul 23 2026

Jon Ossoff rises to second place in Democratic nomination polls despite denying 2028 run

Jon Ossoff jumps to 16%6%

Polls released in late July showed Jon Ossoff climbing to second place in the Democratic primary field with 13-16% support, coinciding with his market price rising from 10% to 16%. Despite his denials of running, his growing popularity fueled market optimism about his chances.

Jul 19 2026

Emerson poll shows Jon Ossoff rising among 2028 Democratic contenders

Jon Ossoff jumps to 14%8%

An Emerson College poll in late July 2026 showed Jon Ossoff gaining support, tying with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and trailing Gavin Newsom, which contributed to a rise in his market odds from 6% to 14-16%. This polling data signaled growing viability for Ossoff despite his public denials of a presidential run.

Jul 15 2026

Jon Ossoff aggressively attacks Trump during Senate Intelligence Committee hearing

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Ossoff questioned Trump's nominee for national intelligence director about the 2020 election results, highlighting Trump's refusal to concede and labeling his administration corrupt. This high-profile confrontation boosted Ossoff's visibility as a leading anti-Trump Democrat and increased his 2028 nomination odds.

Jul 15 2026

Senator Jon Ossoff aggressively questions Trump nominee at Senate hearing, highlighting opposition to Trump

Jon Ossoff rises to 12%3%

On July 15, 2026, Ossoff's pointed questioning of Jay Clayton, Trump's nominee for national intelligence director, and his vocal opposition to Trump administration policies raised his national profile and contributed to a significant rise in his market odds.

Jul 10 2026

Gavin Newsom launches midterm campaign tour focusing on southern states

Gavin Newsom dips to 20%4%

Newsom began a campaign tour in July 2026 targeting key southern states with significant Black voter populations, aiming to build support for Democrats ahead of the midterms and position himself for a potential 2028 presidential run. This strategic outreach was seen as bolstering his frontrunner status, though his market price began to decline afterward.

Jul 7 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surges in New Hampshire poll for 2028 Democratic nomination

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 16%5%

A New Hampshire poll showed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading the early 2028 Democratic presidential primary state, causing her market price to jump from 11% to 16%. This surge highlighted her growing appeal among progressive voters and increased speculation about her candidacy.

Jun 29 2026

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies boost 2028 presidential speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%

Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign rallies in Georgia went viral, showcasing his sharp criticism of Donald Trump and resonating with Democratic voters. Despite his repeated denials of interest in running for president, his rising profile and fundraising success increased his market odds from 6% to 10%.

Jun 21 2026

Gavin Newsom aligns closely with Joe Biden ahead of 2028 presidential cycle

Gavin Newsom dips to 23%1%

Axios reported that Gavin Newsom has been cultivating closer ties with Joe Biden and his political circle, emphasizing Biden's legislative record to secure Democratic goodwill. This strategic positioning reinforced Newsom's frontrunner status, maintaining his market lead despite a slight price dip.

Jun 17 2026

DOJ probe into Gavin Newsom could affect 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

A Washington Post report revealed that the DOJ had opened a federal investigation into Governor Gavin Newsom and his wife. The news sparked speculation that the probe could either damage his presidential prospects or rally Democratic voters, prompting a modest but noticeable decline in Newsom’s market price from the mid‑20s to the low‑20 % range by the end of June.

Jun 17 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

Newsom publicly revealed that he and his wife were under federal investigation, which introduced uncertainty about his presidential prospects. While some Democrats rallied around him viewing the probe as politically motivated, the market price for his nomination odds declined from 25% to around 20%.

Jun 17 2026

Federal probe into California Gov. Gavin Newsom raises doubts about 2028 run

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%7%

The Washington Post reported that Newsom’s office confirmed a federal investigation into his administration on June 17. The announcement sparked speculation that legal trouble could derail a 2028 presidential bid, prompting the market’s price for Newsom to fall from a high of 27 % on June 15 to 20 % by July 1.

Jun 16 2026

Republican Mike Collins wins Georgia Senate runoff, setting up tough race against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Mike Collins won the Republican runoff, becoming Jon Ossoff's opponent in the 2026 Senate election. This improved Ossoff's reelection outlook and boosted his 2028 presidential nomination odds, as a strong Senate position is seen as a stepping stone for presidential ambitions.

Jun 15 2026

Federal investigation announced into Gavin Newsom and his wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly disclosed a federal investigation into himself and his wife, which raised concerns about his presidential prospects. While some Democrats might rally around him if the probe is seen as politically motivated, the announcement caused a decline in his market odds.

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal DOJ investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%

California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly revealed that he and his wife are under investigation by the Department of Justice, which he claims is politically motivated by President Donald Trump due to his potential 2028 presidential run. This announcement led to a decline in Newsom's market price from the mid-20s to the low 20% range, reflecting uncertainty about his candidacy.

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom Accuses Trump Administration of Directing Politically Motivated DOJ Investigation Against Him and His Wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%

California Governor Gavin Newsom released a video claiming that he and his wife are under federal investigation by the Department of Justice, which he argued was a politically motivated attack targeting him as a potential 2028 presidential contender.

Jun 8 2026

The New York Times publishes opinion piece highlighting Jon Ossoff as ideal 2028 candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

An influential New York Times opinion article titled "Why Everyone Wants Jon Ossoff to Run for President" was published, boosting Ossoff's profile and market odds from 7% to 9% by June 13. The piece emphasized Ossoff's appeal and potential despite his denials of presidential ambitions, increasing market enthusiasm.

Jun 2 2026

Jon Ossoff pressures Georgia Democratic Party Chair to step down

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Ossoff exerted influence behind the scenes to oust Nikema Williams as Georgia Democratic Party Chair, citing concerns about her dual roles and leadership effectiveness. This internal party conflict highlighted Ossoff's strategic positioning ahead of his reelection campaign, impacting market sentiment.

Jun 1 2026

Jon Ossoff faces criticism for vote to limit U.S. weapons sales to Israel

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Following his vote supporting resolutions to restrict arms sales to Israel, Ossoff faced backlash from Jewish leaders and community members in Georgia, including criticism from the Israeli consul general and his childhood synagogue's rabbi. This controversy likely influenced market perceptions, contributing to Ossoff's price increase.

May 31 2026

Mike Collins wins Georgia GOP Senate runoff, setting up high-stakes battle against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Mike Collins secured the Republican nomination for the 2026 Georgia Senate race, endorsed by Donald Trump, setting up a competitive race against incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff. This heightened Ossoff's profile and market interest in his potential 2028 presidential run, contributing to his price rise from 5% to 7%.

May 31 2026

Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender amid Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff's rising profile as a young, charismatic leader and his active campaign for Senate reelection in Georgia increased his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. Media coverage and political commentary boosted market confidence, raising his price from 5% to 7%.

May 28 2026

Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg Leading Among Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates

A new Emerson College poll released on May 28, 2026, identified Pete Buttigieg as the top potential contender in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary, with 18% support among likely Democratic primary voters. This poll influenced market perceptions but did not significantly affect Jon Ossoff's price.

May 27 2026

Sen. Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms link arms amid crime and law enforcement debates

On May 27, 2026, Jon Ossoff publicly aligned with Keisha Lance Bottoms, a figure criticized for soft-on-crime policies, which drew Republican attacks and highlighted Ossoff's political positioning in Georgia. This association likely contributed to Ossoff's price movements as it affected perceptions of his electability.

May 25 2026

Kamala Harris says she is ‘thinking about’ running in 2028 presidential election

Kamala Harris dips to 6%2%

At the National Action Network convention Harris told Rev. Al Sharpton she was “thinking about” a 2028 run. The remark, covered by CNN, increased speculation about her candidacy and corresponded with a gradual slide in her market price from 8 % to 6 % by the end of June.

May 22 2026

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%

Kamala Harris publicly stated she is "thinking about" running for president again in 2028 during a speech at the National Action Network convention, sparking speculation and debate about her political future. This announcement initially supported her market price but also led to mixed reactions about her viability.

May 19 2026

Newsom unveils $349 billion 2026‑27 California budget and says he’ll weigh a 2028 presidential run

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Governor Newsom released the 2026‑27 state budget revision, a $349.4 billion plan that highlighted his progressive agenda and reiterated his intent to consider a 2028 presidential bid after the midterms. The high‑visibility budget drew national media coverage and lifted his market price from 24 % to 25 % on May 19, then kept it near that level through early June.

Apr 29 2026

Tom Steyer’s massive ad spend fails to boost his poll numbers

Gavin Newsom rises to 33%3%

Despite spending over $115 million on advertising in the California governor race, Steyer’s polling remained flat, signaling limited impact on national perception of Democratic leaders and contributing to a modest rise in Newsom’s price from 30% to 33% as he emerged as the clear front‑runner.

Feb 4 2026

Newsom’s budget shortfall deepens, prompting cuts to state programs

Gavin Newsom drops to 30%5%

Further analysis revealed the deficit could grow to $22 billion the following year, intensifying concerns over Newsom’s ability to manage the state’s finances. The news coincided with a 5‑point drop in Newsom’s price from 35% to 30% and reinforced the downward trend for other candidates.

Jan 28 2026

Gavin Newsom faces criticism for vetoing menopause bill amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized Governor Gavin Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related bill in California, framing it as devaluing women. This event brought attention to Newsom's policy decisions and affected his public image during speculation about his 2028 presidential run, influencing his market price.

Jan 18 2026

Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during 2024 vetting

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

In his memoir, Josh Shapiro revealed that Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he had ever been an Israeli agent, a question he found offensive. This disclosure highlighted intra-party tensions and affected perceptions of Shapiro's candidacy, contributing to a decline in his market odds.

Jan 15 2026

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Matt Mahan, a moderate Democrat and frequent Newsom critic, announced his candidacy for California governor, challenging Newsom's legacy and potentially weakening Newsom's political standing ahead of a possible 2028 presidential run. This likely contributed to Newsom's market price decline in early 2026.

Jan 15 2026

Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his last year as governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%

Newsom’s office disclosed a $2.9 billion budget shortfall for his final year, underscoring the fiscal challenges he would leave behind. The news dampened enthusiasm for his possible presidential run, pulling his market price down from 34 % on 2026‑01‑01 to 35 % on 2026‑01‑16 (a small rebound after the dip).

Jan 14 2026

Josh Shapiro sets Pennsylvania fundraising record with $30 million for reelection bid

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Josh Shapiro announced a record-breaking $30 million campaign fund for his 2026 reelection, boosting his political profile and signaling strong support within the Democratic Party. This fundraising success likely contributed to market interest in his potential 2028 presidential prospects.

Jan 8 2026

Josh Shapiro launches 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial re-election campaign

Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%

Josh Shapiro officially launched his campaign for a second term as Pennsylvania governor, positioning himself as a strong contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. His campaign emphasized accomplishments and themes resonating with Democrats, boosting his profile and fundraising.

Jan 8 2026

Gavin Newsom proposes shifting California education governance to increase governor's power

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%2%

Newsom proposed reforms to reduce the elected State Superintendent's powers and increase the governor-appointed State Board of Education's control, aiming to streamline education governance. This policy move was part of his final year agenda and may have influenced market perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability.

Dec 21 2025

CNN poll finds Newsom only 6% of Democratic primary support, others near 1‑3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

A CNN poll released on 21 Dec 2025 showed Gavin Newsom leading the Democratic field at only 6 % while Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez, Kamala Harris, Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly each received 1‑3 % support. The market reacted by sharply cutting the odds for all eight candidates, especially the non‑Newsom names, whose prices fell toward single‑digit levels.

Dec 17 2025

Jon Ossoff reports $25 million cash on hand entering 2026 Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Senator Jon Ossoff announced a robust war chest of over $25 million as he prepared for a tough 2026 reelection in Georgia. This fundraising milestone was significant but also indicated his focus on Senate reelection rather than a presidential bid, leading to a sharp market price decline.

Dec 6 2025

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro hints at 2028 presidential ambitions in re‑election kickoff

Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%

Shapiro, while launching his 2026 re‑election campaign, hinted at a “2028 conversation,” saying he wanted to be part of the party’s future direction. The comment generated modest optimism among traders, lifting his price from 6 % on Aug 3 2025 to 6 % (steady) and later to 5 % on May 8 2026 after a series of state‑level wins.

Nov 15 2025

Politico: Gavin Newsom emerges as 2028 Democratic front‑runner, Harris trails

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Politico published an analysis naming Newsom the 2028 Democratic front‑runner and noting Harris lagging behind with just 9 % support. The story coincided with Harris’s mid‑term fundraising slump and pushed her market price from 39 % on Jul 11 2025 down to 6 % on Aug 2 2025.

Nov 10 2025

Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations, suspends California governor campaign

Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%

Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension from the governor's race and resignation plans from Congress. This event removed a key Democratic contender, impacting the dynamics of the race and boosting other candidates' prospects, including Newsom's perceived viability.

Nov 5 2025

Gov. Gavin Newsom to return to South Carolina for early‑state campaign stop

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%14%

The Post and Courier announced Newsom’s second South Carolina visit on 23 Feb 2026, a clear signal of a national‑stage campaign push. Traders lifted Newsom’s price from the low‑20s to a peak of 38 % in early January 2026 before the visit, reflecting expectations of a stronger national profile.

Nov 1 2025

Crowded California governor field fuels fears of Democratic vote split

Analysts warned that the large number of Democratic candidates for California governor could dilute support for any single contender, prompting speculation that the party’s national prospects were weakening. This narrative contributed to a sharp drop in the market prices of all listed candidates, with Kamala Harris falling from 9% to 4% and others similarly declining.

Oct 26 2025

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Newsom told CBS Sunday Morning he was "considering" a 2028 presidential run and would decide after the 2026 midterms. The comment raised his visibility and helped lift his market price from the low‑30s to a peak of 51 % on 2025‑07‑18 before it settled back to the mid‑20s by May 2026.

Oct 25 2025

‘I am not done’ – Kamala Harris tells BBC she may run for president again

Kamala Harris plunges to 5%34%

In a Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg interview, former Vice‑President Harris said “I’m not done” and hinted she may run again in 2028. The comments sparked a sharp market correction for all front‑runners, driving prices from the high‑50s in mid‑July to single‑digit levels by early August as traders reassessed her viability.

Oct 15 2025

California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

The state’s budget office reported a $2.9 billion shortfall for the fiscal year, highlighting fiscal challenges for Newsom’s administration. The deficit raised doubts about his fiscal stewardship, pulling Newsom’s price down from 36% to 35% and further dampening enthusiasm for other Democratic hopefuls.

Oct 15 2025

Halle Berry slams Gov. Newsom’s menopause‑care veto

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Governor Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized the veto at the New York Times DealBook Summit, calling Newsom unfit for higher office. The controversy coincided with a sharp decline in Newsom’s market price from 35 % on 2025‑09‑02 to 28 % on 2025‑02‑17, reflecting voter backlash over the veto.

Oct 2 2025

Newsom pitches California as a national model in final State of the State speech

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%6%

Newsom delivered his final State of the State address, positioning California as a “bulwark” against Trump and highlighting his own record. The high‑profile speech sparked renewed media attention and pushed his market price up from 32 % on 2025‑09‑01 to a peak of 38 % on 2025‑10‑10.

Sep 19 2025

AOC weighs 2028 Senate or presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

Axios reported that AOC was weighing a 2028 Senate or presidential run and had hired senior Sanders advisors. The speculation sent her price from the high‑50s in early July down to the low‑10s by late September as market participants reassessed the viability of a congressional member’s national bid.

Sep 18 2025

Supreme Court lets new California Democratic‑friendly map stand

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%

The Supreme Court’s emergency order allowing California’s new, Democratic‑friendly congressional map was hailed by Newsom as a win against the Trump administration, reinforcing his image as a party protector and lifting his market price from 35 % on 2025‑09‑16 to 36 % on 2025‑09‑18.

Sep 2 2025

Sanders pushes billionaire tax; Newsom opposes

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%4%

Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign for a new billionaire wealth tax in California placed Newsom in direct opposition, creating intra‑party tension. The public debate over the tax coincided with Newsom’s price slipping from 37 % (late August) to 33 % by early February, reflecting concerns about his fiscal stance.

Aug 30 2025

Gov. Newsom vetoes menopause‑care bill, drawing criticism from celebrities

Gavin Newsom dips to 36%2%

Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned the veto, portraying Newsom as out‑of‑touch on women’s health, which contributed to a price dip from 38% to 36% for Newsom and a broader decline for other candidates as the focus shifted to his policy decisions.

Aug 22 2025

Gavin Newsom launches aggressive social media campaign mocking President Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 34%16%

California Governor Gavin Newsom began a high-profile trolling campaign against President Trump, using all-caps posts and memes mimicking Trump's style. This boosted Newsom's national profile and energized Democratic supporters, contributing to a rise in his market odds for the 2028 nomination.

Aug 4 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear tours South Carolina, touts bipartisan appeal

Andy Beshear dips to 3%4%

A Kentucky‑focused op‑ed in the Lexington Herald highlighted Beshear’s recent visit to South Carolina and his appeal to both Democrats and independents, raising his national profile. The coverage coincided with a price rise from 7 % on Aug 3 2025 to 7 % (stable) and later a slight climb to 3 % on May 8 2026 as his name entered more national conversations.

Aug 3 2025

Swalwell suspends California governor bid after sexual‑assault allegations surface

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%

Sexual‑assault allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell were reported, prompting his swift withdrawal from the California governor’s race. The collapse of a leading contender shifted attention toward other candidates, notably reducing the perceived competition for Newsom and nudging his price upward from 20 % on 2025‑08‑02 to 32 % on 2025‑09‑01.

Aug 3 2025

Morning Consult poll shows AOC’s support plunges to low teens

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%

A poll released by Morning Consult (reported by Politico) showed Ocasio‑Cortez dropping from a double‑digit lead among progressive voters to 13 % overall support. The sharp decline coincided with a 40‑point swing in the market, pulling her price from 50 % to 16 % within three days.

Jul 31 2025

Fact‑check: Jon Stewart is not a serious 2028 Democratic nominee

Jon Stewart plunges to 3%47%

A satirical piece on a fringe website claimed Jon Stewart was the “2028 Democratic nominee,” which was quickly debunked by mainstream outlets. The absurd claim caused a brief spike in curiosity trading, pushing his price from 50 % to 3 % on Aug 3 2025, after which the market corrected to 1 % by Sep 3 2025.

Jul 28 2025

Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential ambitions in NPR interview

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

In a July 28, 2025 NPR interview, Pete Buttigieg discussed the future of the Democratic Party and hinted at a possible 2028 presidential run, avoiding a direct confirmation but fueling speculation. This contributed to his initial market price but was followed by declines as doubts about his viability grew.

Jul 22 2025

Gavin Newsom gains frontrunner status after strong 2025 and strategic policy moves

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

Newsom's active engagement in high-profile policy battles, including redistricting and climate issues, along with his national campaigning, elevated him to the leading position for the 2028 Democratic nomination. This boosted market confidence, reflected in his price rising from 18% to over 35% in late July and September 2025.

Jul 21 2025

Kamala Harris becomes presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after Biden withdraws

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 race, Kamala Harris quickly secured the Democratic nomination, becoming the first Black woman and first Asian American to lead a major party's presidential ticket. This historic event significantly boosted her market probability as the likely nominee.

Jul 21 2025

Joe Biden withdraws from 2024 race, endorses Kamala Harris as Democratic nominee

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Biden's withdrawal and endorsement rapidly boosted Kamala Harris's delegate support, leading to her securing the Democratic nomination for 2024. This event marked Harris's official rise as the party's presidential candidate, impacting her 2028 nomination odds positively initially.

Jul 21 2025

Gavin Newsom gains early momentum amid California wildfires and political clashes with Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

In July 2025, California faced severe wildfires and homelessness issues, and Newsom's combative stance against President Trump, including over immigration enforcement and National Guard deployment, boosted his profile as a fighter for Democrats, increasing his nomination odds from 18% to around 35%.

Jul 20 2025

Jon Ossoff surges in 2028 Democratic nomination odds after sharp criticism of Trump

Jon Ossoff plunges to 8%42%

Senator Jon Ossoff's odds rose significantly in prediction markets following a rally in Augusta, Georgia, where he criticized President Trump and his administration for corruption and policy failures. This increased his visibility and positioned him as a top contender behind Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Jul 18 2025

Gov. Newsom hints at 2028 presidential run, market spikes

Gavin Newsom jumps to 18%6%

Newsom’s early July remarks that he was “considering a 2028 White House run” sparked a surge in speculation about his presidential ambitions, driving the market price for all listed candidates up to a peak of 51 % on 2025‑07‑18. The optimistic surge was later confined to Newsom as his name steadied at 18 % before climbing again.

Jul 16 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear emerges as potential 2028 presidential candidate

Andy Beshear plunges to 7%43%

Beshear gained attention as a Democratic governor in a red state with a strong record of governance and bipartisan appeal, sparking speculation about a presidential run. His pragmatic leadership and popularity in Kentucky positioned him as a possible nominee, reflected in early market interest.

Jul 16 2025

Andy Beshear tours South Carolina, signaling 2028 presidential ambitions

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear visited multiple South Carolina cities in July 2025 to engage with early primary voters, publicly expressing his interest in a presidential bid and emphasizing the need for a candidate who can heal the country. This tour increased his national profile and contributed to a modest rise in his market price.

Jul 15 2025

Trump calls Gov. Gavin Newsom “stupid” over dyslexia in Cabinet meeting

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

President Trump publicly mocked Gov. Gavin Newsom’s dyslexia in a Cabinet meeting, calling him “stupid” and “low‑IQ.” The attack raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted speculation that he could become the 2028 Democratic nominee, lifting the Newsom market price from 18 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 20 % by 2025‑08‑02.

Jul 15 2025

Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire wealth tax, clashes with Gov. Newsom

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Sen. Bernie Sanders visited Los Angeles to promote a proposed state wealth tax, directly opposing Gov. Gavin Newsom. The high‑profile showdown raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted his perceived viability as a 2028 presidential candidate, lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.

Jul 14 2025

Rahm Emanuel signals strong interest in 2028 presidential run during South Carolina talks

Rahm Emanuel plunges to 3%47%

Rahm Emanuel engaged in private discussions with key South Carolina Democrats, including Rep. Jim Clyburn, indicating serious interest in a 2028 presidential bid. This early positioning in a critical primary state raised his profile and market expectations for his candidacy.

Jul 12 2025

Gavin Newsom gains national attention after Los Angeles wildfires response

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

California Governor Gavin Newsom's handling of the January 2025 wildfires and his aggressive stance against President Trump over immigration enforcement raised his national profile, boosting his perceived viability as a 2028 Democratic presidential candidate and increasing his market odds.

Jul 12 2025

Jon Ossoff holds major campaign rally in Savannah, GA

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Senator Jon Ossoff held a large rally in Savannah, attacking Republican policies and President Trump, energizing his base and demonstrating strong campaign momentum ahead of his 2026 Senate re-election. This event coincided with a sharp drop in his market price from 50% to 4% as the market adjusted to his focus on Senate rather than presidential ambitions.

Jul 11 2025

Pete Buttigieg announces he will not run for Michigan Senate in 2026, preserving 2028 presidential option

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

On July 11, 2025, Pete Buttigieg announced he would not run for Michigan's open Senate seat in 2026, signaling his intention to keep the door open for a 2028 presidential run. This announcement caused a sharp drop in his market price as it clarified his immediate political plans.

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year

Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%

Newsom's announcement of a significant budget shortfall highlighted fiscal challenges in California, impacting perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability. Despite the deficit, Newsom's efforts to maintain progressive policies kept his market price relatively stable and rising.

Jul 11 2025

Democratic insiders push for straight white male nominee to counter Trump election trauma

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Party strategists privately advocated for a demographic shift favoring a straight, white Christian male nominee for 2028, reflecting internal concerns about electability after recent losses, which negatively impacted candidates outside this profile, including Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Jul 11 2025

Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign for California governor, positioning himself as a fighter against Trump and highlighting his desire to help Californians prosper. This announcement initially boosted his profile and affected perceptions of Gavin Newsom's political future, as Newsom is term-limited and a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于 2026年8月17日 UTC 04:31

Aug 16 2026

Gavin Newsom’s odds decline amid rising competition in 2028 Democratic nomination race

Gavin Newsom dips to 16%4%

Gavin Newsom’s market odds declined to 16% as other candidates like Ocasio-Cortez and Ossoff gained ground, reflecting a more competitive and fragmented Democratic primary field.

Aug 13 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signals Democratic shift away from 'woke' politics

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 19%5%

Aug 9 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces she is freezing her eggs while weighing 2028 presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 21%6%

Aug 9 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces freezing eggs amid 2028 run considerations

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 22%7%

Aug 1 2026

Kamala Harris calls for major reforms including Supreme Court expansion ahead of possible 2028 run

Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%

Jul 23 2026

Jon Ossoff rises to second place in Democratic nomination polls despite denying 2028 run

Jon Ossoff jumps to 16%6%

Jul 19 2026

Emerson poll shows Jon Ossoff rising among 2028 Democratic contenders

Jon Ossoff jumps to 14%8%

Jul 15 2026

Jon Ossoff aggressively attacks Trump during Senate Intelligence Committee hearing

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Jul 15 2026

Senator Jon Ossoff aggressively questions Trump nominee at Senate hearing, highlighting opposition to Trump

Jon Ossoff rises to 12%3%

Jul 10 2026

Gavin Newsom launches midterm campaign tour focusing on southern states

Gavin Newsom dips to 20%4%

Jul 7 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surges in New Hampshire poll for 2028 Democratic nomination

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 16%5%

Jun 29 2026

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies boost 2028 presidential speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%

Jun 21 2026

Gavin Newsom aligns closely with Joe Biden ahead of 2028 presidential cycle

Gavin Newsom dips to 23%1%

Jun 17 2026

DOJ probe into Gavin Newsom could affect 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

Jun 17 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

Jun 17 2026

Federal probe into California Gov. Gavin Newsom raises doubts about 2028 run

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%7%

Jun 16 2026

Republican Mike Collins wins Georgia Senate runoff, setting up tough race against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Jun 15 2026

Federal investigation announced into Gavin Newsom and his wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal DOJ investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom Accuses Trump Administration of Directing Politically Motivated DOJ Investigation Against Him and His Wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%

Jun 8 2026

The New York Times publishes opinion piece highlighting Jon Ossoff as ideal 2028 candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Jun 2 2026

Jon Ossoff pressures Georgia Democratic Party Chair to step down

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Jun 1 2026

Jon Ossoff faces criticism for vote to limit U.S. weapons sales to Israel

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

May 31 2026

Mike Collins wins Georgia GOP Senate runoff, setting up high-stakes battle against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

May 31 2026

Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender amid Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

May 28 2026

Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg Leading Among Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates

May 27 2026

Sen. Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms link arms amid crime and law enforcement debates

May 25 2026

Kamala Harris says she is ‘thinking about’ running in 2028 presidential election

Kamala Harris dips to 6%2%

May 22 2026

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%

May 19 2026

Newsom unveils $349 billion 2026‑27 California budget and says he’ll weigh a 2028 presidential run

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Apr 29 2026

Tom Steyer’s massive ad spend fails to boost his poll numbers

Gavin Newsom rises to 33%3%

Feb 4 2026

Newsom’s budget shortfall deepens, prompting cuts to state programs

Gavin Newsom drops to 30%5%

Jan 28 2026

Gavin Newsom faces criticism for vetoing menopause bill amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Jan 18 2026

Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during 2024 vetting

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Jan 15 2026

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Jan 15 2026

Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his last year as governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%

Jan 14 2026

Josh Shapiro sets Pennsylvania fundraising record with $30 million for reelection bid

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Jan 8 2026

Josh Shapiro launches 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial re-election campaign

Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%

Jan 8 2026

Gavin Newsom proposes shifting California education governance to increase governor's power

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%2%

Dec 21 2025

CNN poll finds Newsom only 6% of Democratic primary support, others near 1‑3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

Dec 17 2025

Jon Ossoff reports $25 million cash on hand entering 2026 Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Dec 6 2025

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro hints at 2028 presidential ambitions in re‑election kickoff

Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%

Nov 15 2025

Politico: Gavin Newsom emerges as 2028 Democratic front‑runner, Harris trails

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Nov 10 2025

Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations, suspends California governor campaign

Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%

Nov 5 2025

Gov. Gavin Newsom to return to South Carolina for early‑state campaign stop

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%14%

Nov 1 2025

Crowded California governor field fuels fears of Democratic vote split

Oct 26 2025

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Oct 25 2025

‘I am not done’ – Kamala Harris tells BBC she may run for president again

Kamala Harris plunges to 5%34%

Oct 15 2025

California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

Oct 15 2025

Halle Berry slams Gov. Newsom’s menopause‑care veto

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Oct 2 2025

Newsom pitches California as a national model in final State of the State speech

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%6%

Sep 19 2025

AOC weighs 2028 Senate or presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

Sep 18 2025

Supreme Court lets new California Democratic‑friendly map stand

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%

Sep 2 2025

Sanders pushes billionaire tax; Newsom opposes

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%4%

Aug 30 2025

Gov. Newsom vetoes menopause‑care bill, drawing criticism from celebrities

Gavin Newsom dips to 36%2%

Aug 22 2025

Gavin Newsom launches aggressive social media campaign mocking President Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 34%16%

Aug 4 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear tours South Carolina, touts bipartisan appeal

Andy Beshear dips to 3%4%

Aug 3 2025

Swalwell suspends California governor bid after sexual‑assault allegations surface

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%

Aug 3 2025

Morning Consult poll shows AOC’s support plunges to low teens

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%

Jul 31 2025

Fact‑check: Jon Stewart is not a serious 2028 Democratic nominee

Jon Stewart plunges to 3%47%

Jul 28 2025

Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential ambitions in NPR interview

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

Jul 22 2025

Gavin Newsom gains frontrunner status after strong 2025 and strategic policy moves

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

Jul 21 2025

Kamala Harris becomes presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after Biden withdraws

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Jul 21 2025

Joe Biden withdraws from 2024 race, endorses Kamala Harris as Democratic nominee

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Jul 21 2025

Gavin Newsom gains early momentum amid California wildfires and political clashes with Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

Jul 20 2025

Jon Ossoff surges in 2028 Democratic nomination odds after sharp criticism of Trump

Jon Ossoff plunges to 8%42%

Jul 18 2025

Gov. Newsom hints at 2028 presidential run, market spikes

Gavin Newsom jumps to 18%6%

Jul 16 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear emerges as potential 2028 presidential candidate

Andy Beshear plunges to 7%43%

Jul 16 2025

Andy Beshear tours South Carolina, signaling 2028 presidential ambitions

Jul 15 2025

Trump calls Gov. Gavin Newsom “stupid” over dyslexia in Cabinet meeting

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Jul 15 2025

Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire wealth tax, clashes with Gov. Newsom

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Jul 14 2025

Rahm Emanuel signals strong interest in 2028 presidential run during South Carolina talks

Rahm Emanuel plunges to 3%47%

Jul 12 2025

Gavin Newsom gains national attention after Los Angeles wildfires response

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

Jul 12 2025

Jon Ossoff holds major campaign rally in Savannah, GA

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Jul 11 2025

Pete Buttigieg announces he will not run for Michigan Senate in 2026, preserving 2028 presidential option

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year

Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%

Jul 11 2025

Democratic insiders push for straight white male nominee to counter Trump election trauma

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Jul 11 2025

Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2028年民主党总统候选人"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 51+ 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯"，概率为 20%，其次是"加文·纽瑟姆"，概率为 17%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 20¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 20%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2028年民主党总统候选人"已产生 $1.3 billion 的总交易量（自Jul 11, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2028年民主党总统候选人"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 51+ 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2028年民主党总统候选人"的当前领先者是"分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯"，概率为 20%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 20%。紧随其后的结果是"加文·纽瑟姆"，概率为 17%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2028年民主党总统候选人"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。

可以。你不需要交易也能保持了解。本页是"2028年民主党总统候选人"的实时跟踪器。结果概率会随着新交易的进入而实时更新。你可以将本页加入书签并查看评论区以了解其他交易者的看法。你还可以使用图表上的时间范围筛选器查看赔率随时间的变化情况。

Polymarket 的赔率由真实交易者用真金白银支持其判断来设定，这往往能产生准确的预测。“2028年民主党总统候选人”的交易量达到 $1.3 billion，这些价格汇聚了数千名参与者的集体知识和信念——通常优于民调、专家预测和传统调查。像 Polymarket 这样的预测市场有着出色的准确性记录，尤其是当事件接近结算日期时。例如，Polymarket 的一个月准确度评分为 94%。有关 Polymarket 预测准确度的最新统计数据，请访问准确度页面。

要在"2028年民主党总统候选人"上进行第一笔交易，请注册免费的 Polymarket 账户，并使用加密货币、信用卡或借记卡或银行转账充值。账户充值后，返回本页，选择你想交易的结果，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你是预测市场的新手，请点击任何 Polymarket 页面顶部的"运作方式"链接，获取分步指南。

在 Polymarket 上，每个结果的价格代表市场的隐含概率。在"2028年民主党总统候选人"市场中，"分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯"的价格为 20¢，意味着交易者集体认为"分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯"成为正确结果的概率约为 20%。如果你以 20¢ 买入"是"份额且结果正确，你将获得每份 $1.00——利润为每份 80¢。如果不正确，这些份额价值 $0。

"2028年民主党总统候选人"市场是一个长期预测，结算日期为 Nov 6, 2028——大约还有超过 2 年。Polymarket 上的长期市场通常会随着事件的发展而出现显著的赔率变化。你可以随时交易或将本页加入书签。

"2028年民主党总统候选人"市场有一个活跃的社区，有 787 条评论，交易者在此分享分析、讨论结果和最新动态。向下滚动到评论区，阅读其他参与者的观点。你还可以按"持仓大户"筛选，或查看"活动"标签以获取实时交易动态。

Polymarket 是全球最大的预测市场，你可以在此了解最新动态并利用自己对现实事件的知识获利。交易者买卖涵盖政治选举、加密货币、金融、体育、科技和文化等各种主题的结果份额，包括"2028年民主党总统候选人"等市场。价格反映由金融信念支持的实时概率，通常比民调、专家或传统调查提供更快、更准确的信号。

2028年民主党总统候选人

2028年民主党总统候选人

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"分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯"的价格 20¢ 意味着什么？

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