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政治·全球选举

戈尔韦-西部补选获胜者？

icon for 戈尔韦-西部补选获胜者？
政治·全球选举

戈尔韦-西部补选获胜者？

诺埃尔·托马斯 44%

Seán Kyne 32.4%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.3%

迈克·卡巴德 9.4%

Polymarket

$44,661 交易量

诺埃尔·托马斯 44%

Seán Kyne 32.4%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.3%

迈克·卡巴德 9.4%

Polymarket

$44,661 交易量

Sheila Garrity

$20,238 交易量

1%

Seán Kyne

$3,503 交易量

32%

尼尔·墨菲

$1,833 交易量

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,630 交易量

10%

奥拉·纳金特

$1,633 交易量

<1%

海伦·奥格布

$2,915 交易量

6%

丹曼·鲁克

$1,604 交易量

1%

诺埃尔·托马斯

$5,023 交易量

44%

托马斯·韦尔比

$1,689 交易量

<1%

迈克·卡巴德

$2,092 交易量

9%

马克·洛汉

$2,501 交易量

3%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas as the narrow frontrunner at 43.5% implied probability to win the May 22 Galway West Dáil by-election, edging Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 32.4%, despite the May 7 Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A opinion poll (fieldwork May 1-5) showing Kyne's slim first-preference lead of 17% to Thomas's 16% among 530 voters. This divergence stems from traders' emphasis on STV transfer dynamics in the five-seat constituency, where Thomas benefits from Independent Ireland's anti-establishment surge on housing, immigration, and fuel crisis discontent—fueling 67% anti-Government sentiment—and his Connemara rural base, countering Kyne's second-preference advantage amid historical trends against government by-election wins since 2014. Labour's Helen Ogbu polls stronger at 12% but trades lower, with Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich and independent Mike Cubbard viable amid 17 candidates and a left-wing transfer pact. Final canvassing and multi-count eliminations loom as pivotal.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$44,661
结束日期
2027-03-31
市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas as the narrow frontrunner at 43.5% implied probability to win the May 22 Galway West Dáil by-election, edging Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 32.4%, despite the May 7 Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A opinion poll (fieldwork May 1-5) showing Kyne's slim first-preference lead of 17% to Thomas's 16% among 530 voters. This divergence stems from traders' emphasis on STV transfer dynamics in the five-seat constituency, where Thomas benefits from Independent Ireland's anti-establishment surge on housing, immigration, and fuel crisis discontent—fueling 67% anti-Government sentiment—and his Connemara rural base, countering Kyne's second-preference advantage amid historical trends against government by-election wins since 2014. Labour's Helen Ogbu polls stronger at 12% but trades lower, with Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich and independent Mike Cubbard viable amid 17 candidates and a left-wing transfer pact. Final canvassing and multi-count eliminations loom as pivotal.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$44,661
结束日期
2027-03-31
市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"戈尔韦-西部补选获胜者？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 11 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"诺埃尔·托马斯"，概率为 44%，其次是"Seán Kyne"，概率为 32%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 44¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 44%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"戈尔韦-西部补选获胜者？"已产生 $44.7K 的总交易量（自Feb 26, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"戈尔韦-西部补选获胜者？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 11 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"戈尔韦-西部补选获胜者？"的当前领先者是"诺埃尔·托马斯"，概率为 44%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 44%。紧随其后的结果是"Seán Kyne"，概率为 32%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"戈尔韦-西部补选获胜者？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。