The upcoming May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil seat vacated by Catherine Connolly's election as president features a tight contest under single transferable vote rules, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas leading trader consensus at 47 percent amid expectations of robust local independent backing and favorable transfer flows from smaller candidates. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne follows at 31 percent, supported by established party organization and an early May Irish Times/TG4 poll showing him narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent. Lower probabilities for Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Labour's Helen Ogbu, and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan reflect vote fragmentation on the left and limited candidate profile in a constituency where independents have historically performed well.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于诺埃尔·托马斯 42%
Seán Kyne 31.2%
迈克·卡巴德 9.1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.0%
$47,329 交易量
$47,329 交易量
2027-03-31
Sheila Garrity
1%
Seán Kyne
31%
尼尔·墨菲
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
9%
奥拉·纳金特
1%
海伦·奥格布
4%
丹曼·鲁克
1%
诺埃尔·托马斯
47%
托马斯·韦尔比
<1%
迈克·卡巴德
10%
马克·洛汉
4%
诺埃尔·托马斯 42%
Seán Kyne 31.2%
迈克·卡巴德 9.1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.0%
$47,329 交易量
$47,329 交易量
2027-03-31
Sheila Garrity
$20,246 交易量
1%
Seán Kyne
$4,700 交易量
31%
尼尔·墨菲
$1,834 交易量
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
$1,646 交易量
9%
奥拉·纳金特
$1,680 交易量
1%
海伦·奥格布
$3,933 交易量
4%
丹曼·鲁克
$1,612 交易量
1%
诺埃尔·托马斯
$5,057 交易量
47%
托马斯·韦尔比
$1,697 交易量
<1%
迈克·卡巴德
$2,416 交易量
10%
马克·洛汉
$2,509 交易量
4%
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The upcoming May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil seat vacated by Catherine Connolly's election as president features a tight contest under single transferable vote rules, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas leading trader consensus at 47 percent amid expectations of robust local independent backing and favorable transfer flows from smaller candidates. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne follows at 31 percent, supported by established party organization and an early May Irish Times/TG4 poll showing him narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent. Lower probabilities for Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Labour's Helen Ogbu, and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan reflect vote fragmentation on the left and limited candidate profile in a constituency where independents have historically performed well.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
交易量
$47,329结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The upcoming May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil seat vacated by Catherine Connolly's election as president features a tight contest under single transferable vote rules, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas leading trader consensus at 47 percent amid expectations of robust local independent backing and favorable transfer flows from smaller candidates. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne follows at 31 percent, supported by established party organization and an early May Irish Times/TG4 poll showing him narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent. Lower probabilities for Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Labour's Helen Ogbu, and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan reflect vote fragmentation on the left and limited candidate profile in a constituency where independents have historically performed well.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$47,329结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The upcoming May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil seat vacated by Catherine Connolly's election as president features a tight contest under single transferable vote rules, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas leading trader consensus at 47 percent amid expectations of robust local independent backing and favorable transfer flows from smaller candidates. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne follows at 31 percent, supported by established party organization and an early May Irish Times/TG4 poll showing him narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent. Lower probabilities for Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Labour's Helen Ogbu, and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan reflect vote fragmentation on the left and limited candidate profile in a constituency where independents have historically performed well.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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