Recent political turbulence in Guinea-Bissau, including the November 2025 military takeover after a disputed election where Fernando Dias da Costa and Umaro Sissoco Embaló both claimed victory, has fragmented the field ahead of the December 6, 2026, vote under transitional military oversight. A subsequent August 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent, shifted the system toward stronger presidential authority while imposing a five-year continuous residency requirement for candidates. This environment, marked by opposition restrictions, party exclusions, and a history of coups, has produced a crowded ballot with limited consolidation behind any single contender. Traders assign the highest implied probability to Dias da Costa, a former assembly vice president and Party for Social Renewal leader backed by certain opposition alliances, followed by incumbent Embaló of Madem G15, with other figures such as José Mário Vaz trailing due to narrower bases or prior terms. Fragmentation persists amid uncertainty over alliances, military influence on the process, and potential late shifts in support.